Political Manouevring Begins

The sudden demise of Saparmurat Niazov and the lack of a designated successor has created uncertainty about how the various political forces will align themselves. NBCentralAsia analysts say the most likely scenario is a power-struggle involving Turkmenistan’s security agencies. The opposition based abroad will have little part to play in this process.



After Niazov’s death was announced on December 21, some opposition leaders said they planned to return to the country and instigate democratic change. They called on the interim administration to cancel a constitutional rule requiring a presidential election to take place in two months’ time so as to give other political actors a year in which to develop as competitors on an equal footing. This would prevent a return to totalitarianism and dictatorship, they said.



NBCentralAsia analysts doubt the interim government will heed such calls.



“In this power-struggle, the domestic elite has no interest in allowing some other force to emerge that is backed from abroad,” said NBCentralAsia political expert Mars Sariev. “The opposition’s chances of becoming directly and actively engaged in the political contest are minimal.”



This view is shared by an Ashgabat-based observer, who said the opposition movement in exile is fractured and does not enjoy substantial support within Turkmenistan. “Even if they were to produce presidential candiates, none would win a majority,” said this observer.



Vyacheslav Mamedov, the leader of the Civil Democratic Union, one of the foreign-based opposition groups, said émigré organisations were unlikely to be able to take on Niazov’s successors head to head, as they lacked both a common plan of action and adequate funding to mobilise public support.



NBCentralAsia’s commentators are therefore looking at the domestic political scene, where they believe a major power-struggle could develop between key figures within the security agencies.



Sources inside Turkmenistan tell NBCentralAsia that acting president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is believed to have forged an alliance with the head of the Presidential Guard, Akmurad Rejepov. They fear this could allow Niazov’s totalitarian system to perpetuate itself.



“I am concerned that [Berdymuhammedov and Rejepov] are already in a strong position if it is true that they arranged for Berdymuhammedov to be installed,” said an Ashgabat-based commentator. “If Defence Minister Agageldy Mamageldyev teams up with them, they will keep the Niazov system going.



“None of them stands out as a figure – except Rejepov, who has worked in the bodyguards’ service for more than 25 years and knows the whole game of subterfuge inside out. He’s an experienced security service guy.”



Despite these factors, NBCentralAsia analyst Kurban Yuvshanov still believes the people of Turkmenistan will play the most important part in deciding the country’s political future.



“I think we’ll have to wait for a year. Even Berdymuhammedov’s statement that Niazov’s policies will continue is only an initial gambit for public consumption, because no one knows what the policy direction is going to be,” said Yuvshanov. “So the situation will depend more on what another player – the nation itself – wants.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)