Outcome of Serbian Coalition Insignificant to Bosnia

Almost three weeks after Serbs went to the polls, it is still unclear who will form the new government and how this will affect Belgrade’s relations with neighbouring countries.



A key player in any coalition will be the Socialist Party of Serbia, SPS, which was founded by Slobodan Milosevic – former Yugoslav president and erstwhile inmate of the Hague tribunal’s detention centre.



But it is unclear whether the SPS will join a pro-European coalition led by President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party, DS, or they will ally themselves with a hard-line nationalist coalition, led by the Serbian Radical Party, SRS, whose leader Vojislav Seselj is currently on trial for war crimes in The Hague.



The second possibility erodes the optimism felt by many – both in the Balkans and worldwide – after the bloc led by the DS did surprisingly well in the elections.



The lingering question in the minds of many observers is how the yet-to-be-formed Belgrade government will influence the still unstable region.



Would a coalition between the nationalist followers of Seselj, Milosevic and Vojislav Kostunica mean a return to the bad old days in the Balkans? And would a government led by the SRS, cause chaos in Kosovo, before turning its attention to Bosnia, home to a large and restive ethnic Serb community and traditional target of Serb nationalist rhetoric?



Yet post-election comments made by several Bosnian politicians and analysts suggest that the situation is not that dramatic. While a Radical government in Belgrade would not be good news, they say, there is also no reason to expect a catastrophe. Furthermore, a pro-European government led by Tadic would not necessarily contribute to stability in Bosnia as many, especially in the West, might assume.



“Serbia today, compared to the 1990s, is a much reduced force, militarily and economically, and even if the hard-line nationalist Radical party turns out to have won the general election, it is not likely at all that the Balkans would return to the nightmares of the Milosevic era,” said Tanja Topic, a political analyst from Banja Luka, the capital of Bosnia’s predominantly Serb entity Republika Srpska, RS.



“No matter which parties end up forming the new government in Belgrade, it is certain that such a government will be based on lots of political compromises and therefore be weak and unstable.



“The parties in the new government will be fighting for their own political survival and will not have enough strength to cause much trouble elsewhere, including in Bosnia.”



However, she did warn that with the socialist party on board, the new government would be unlikely to pursue closer ties with Bosnia.



“The new government will have to include Milosevic’s Socialists and that is the most significant election result. Such a government, incorporating the SPS, will not be capable of relaxing and improving relationships with Bosnia, especially on the state level,” she added.



Politicians in Sarajevo had mixed opinions about Serbia’s future government.



RS prime minister Milorad Dodik and his ruling party the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, are not hiding who they would prefer to see in power.



RS president and SNSD member Rajko Kuzmanovic told the Banja Luka-based daily Nezavisna Novine that “any government elected in Serbia will have good relations and cooperate with Republika Srpska, but I am convinced that it will be the government of the Democratic Party”.



Dodik – who openly supported Tadic and the Democratic Party during the last round of the Serbian elections, as well as during the presidential poll won by Tadic – said that the SNSD had close ties with Tadic’s party.



“I am expecting the new Serbian government to continue the EU integration process while protecting the national sovereignty of Serbia and erasing the illegal independence of Kosovo,” he said.



Dodik’s backing for Tadic has caused trouble with the SRS and its deputy leader Tomislav Nikolic. In recent months, the two have exchanged harsh words.



“Nikolic’s victory would be fatal for Serbs,” said Dodik, during the Serbian presidential election campaign.



“Dodik is a criminal,” Nikolic replied, according to a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, RFE/RL, report.



Topic said that personal ties sometimes play an important role in politics, and suggested that his cool relations with Nikolic could cost him dear.



“If the Radicals succeed in forming a government in Belgrade that will be blow for Milorad Dodik and might, in the long run, challenge his currently unquestioned status in Banja Luka,” she said.



Although the main Bosniak and Croat political parties in Bosnia welcomed the success of Tadic’s pro-European bloc, their support has been lukewarm compared to that of Dodik.



“The results of the Serbian elections are not of any significance for Bosnia,” said Croat member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency Zeljko Komsic.



Komsic seemed to suggest that there was little difference between the policies of Tadic and the Radicals.



“Not much has changed. The results spelled out that the nationalist bloc – and I am not sure that Boris Tadic’s party should be excluded from that category – is able to form a new Serbian government,” he said.



Sarajevo-based political analyst Ivan Lovrenovic agreed.



“Although politicians from Sarajevo naturally support anyone but the Serbian Radicals, in this particular case they are not thrilled with a Tadic-led government either,” he said.



The political situation in Bosnia has deteriorated since the last general election in 2006, mainly due to Dodik’s nationalist rhetoric.



The prime minister has repeatedly said he will not tolerate any threats to the existence of RS, claiming the dissolution of this entity was the main goal of Bosniak politicians. Dodik has fanned the flames of Serbian nationalism, threatening on several occasions that RS might hold a referendum on independence, causing major concern for Bosnia and the international community.



“Politicians in Sarajevo are frustrated by the fact that Tadic, who has been seen as a democrat, unconditionally supports Milorad Dodik and his nationalist policies,” Lovrenovic told IWPR.



“It is a painful paradox that in Bosnia, Boris Tadic – who is seen by many as a democratic politician with a pro-European orientation – supports the aggressive policies of Milorad Dodik.



“But it is not Tadic’s and his Democratic Party’s fault. Rather it is an axiom of Belgrade policy to enforce a strategy of Serbian national unity when it comes to Bosnia.



“It has been like that at least for the last century. Therefore, whoever forms the government in Serbia in the end - Radicals or Democrats – will not affect Bosnia much.”



Nedim Sarac is a Sarajevo-based journalist.