Opposition Talk, But Little Action

When Kyrgyz opposition groups gather for their next big meeting, there are likely to be fiery demands for reform and loud criticism of the government. But political analysts interviewed by NBCentralAsia predict that the protests will not translate into action.



The Eighth People’s Kurultai, or congress, will convene on September 17 in the southern district of Aksy. The kurultai, a popular gathering, is being organised by Asaba, an opposition party led by Azimbek Beknazarov.



Both the choice of location and the presence of Beknazarov suggest the congress will be distinctly anti-government in tone. Aksy gained international notoriety in March 2002, when police fired into a crowd that had gathered in protest against the arrest of Beknazarov, their member of parliament. Six people died, and the event set off protests that threatened to topple the then president Askar Akaev. The prime minister at the time was Kurmanbek Bakiev, who is now president.



The main aim of the kurultai is to evaluate the record of Bakiev government, which came to power after violent protests in March 2005. Asaba will be joined by the Movement for Reforms, MfR, which unites several opposition party leaders.



MfR staged demonstrations in spring this year and presented ten demands to the government, including a war on crime and corruption, swift constitutional reform, and the resignation of a number of high-level officials. After the government acceded to some of these things, including the removal of several officials, the opposition fell quiet over the summer, leading some observers to wonder whether the government had made peace with its opponents.



Opposition leaders surveyed by NBCA say they have a number of serious issues - some left over from the spring - that they plan to raise with the government. Given that constitutional reform is now being scheduled for the end of the year, the opposition may demand a shift to a parliamentary system in which the president’s powers are severely circumscribed.



Yet NBCentralAsia’s observers predict that aside from marking the government’s performance and repeating its demands, the opposition will not undertake more radical action in the near future. In the parlance of Kyrgyzstan’s political discourse, “radical” would mean mass protests lasting several days, the blocking of roads, or the seizure of public buildings.



Instead, the opposition will give the government time to accede to its demands, then confine itself to demonstrations and other public protests.



There appears to be a lack of consensus among opposition leaders. For example, Beknazarov told NBCA that if the kurultai gives the government a unanimous thumbs-down, it will call for the president’s resignation. However, MrF leader Kubatbek Baibolov says this is not the answer, and that the opposition should continue pressing for reforms.



Most analysts predict that Baibolov’s more moderate stance will win the day.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)