Opposition Still Divided

The new Kyrgyz opposition movement headed by former prime minister Felix Kulov has failed so far to gain impetus as major players hold off from pledging their allegiance.



The new opposition movement, the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan, founded and led by former prime minister Felix Kulov, sprung into action this week by opening its headquarters in Bishkek along with a number of regional offices.



In its first statement, the United Front called on President Kurmanbek Bakiev to resign, claiming he lost legitimacy by breaking the alliance he made with Kulov ahead of the presidential election in 2005.



After the “tulip revolution” of March 2005, which saw the ousting of then president Askar Akaev in a popular revolt, the main contenders, Bakiev and Kulov, agreed to join forces rather than fight for the presidency. Bakiev duly appointed Kulov after winning the ballot.



In mid-January this year, however, Kulov – who had resigned in December but stayed on as caretaker - was rejected by parliament twice in a renewed bid to be confirmed as prime minister. Rather than nominate him a third time, Bakiev replaced him with Azim Isabekov, the current premier.



On February 14, Kulov announced that he had gone over to the opposition with the aim of becoming leader of what he termed a “fractured but essentially closely aligned” force.



Almost all leaders of the Movement for Reforms, MFR, the country’s largest opposition movement, which forced Bakiev to adopt a new constitution in November 2006 through street demonstrations, have signed up to the United Front’s first statement



However, Kurmanbek Turumbekov, who heads the Kairan El party, an MFR member, told NBCentralAsia that this does not mean that the signatories plan to join the United Front or that they support its political stance.



“Many representatives of the opposition simply did this as a mark of moral support for Kulov,” he said.



Other opposition leaders have also said that they do not share the United Front’s radical position.



“There are many issues we don’t agree on,” said Azimbek Beknazarov, leader of the Asaba party and also an MFR member. “For example, we’re not going to make radical demands like the United Front. Our goal is to carry out reforms and we are not going to take anti-constitutional steps.”



Another MFR leader, Kubatbek Baibolov, warned that a confrontation between the authorities and the opposition could destabilise the country and could even lead to a kind of “civil war”.



“We have to let the president work until his constitutional term expires but we will demand reforms,” he said.



Political observers argue that the United Front has not created more cohesion in the Kyrgyz opposition and say the various party leaders will find it very difficult to agree on a common course of action.



The fact that the United Front and MFR have not merged is a sign that their leaders do not share a common vision of the future, according to Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies.



Both he and political scientist Aleksandr Knyazev agree that Kyrgyz politics continues to be driven by personalities rather than ideological views.



“The opposition’s disunity is a consequence of the way Kyrgyz politicians thinks, but the lack of a common programme is another divisive factor. Political groupings in this country, including the opposition parties, are created not around programmes but around political leaders. And these leaders are generally in competition with one another,” said Knyazev.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)