Opposition Seeks Premier's Resignation
Opposition Seeks Premier's Resignation
Despite the Kyrgyz opposition’s latest demands that Prime Minister Felix Kulov step down, NBCentralAsia observers say the chances of this happening are fairly slim.
On November 14, the opposition Movement for Reforms stated that the political situation would become stable if Kulov were to resign voluntarily.
Edil Baisalov, leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, said the main reason for demanding that Kulov and the entire government should go is that they lack the confidence of a majority in parliament. Under Kyrgyzstan’s new constitution, the cabinet is supposed to have parliament’s backing.
Political scientist Tamerlan Ibraimov sees the opposition’s demand as a logical continuation of the demands the Movement for Reforms voiced during last week’s extended protests.
The week-long street demonstrations, during which the opposition called for the resignation of President Kurmanbek Bakiev as well as the prime minister, concluded in a deal in which both sides agreed on a new draft constitution, which came into force immediately after Bakiev signed it on November 9.
Part of the deal hammered out by the authorities and their opponents was that the current legislative and executive, including the president, should stay in office until the end of their terms.
According to Ibraimov, “The government acquires additional powers because of the changes to the constitution, but the opposition is not happy with the prime minister. [Opposition leaders] are continually being summoned for interrogation by the National Security Service, while the president has appointed a new governor in Chuy region, even though this is supposed to be the government’s prerogative.”
The National Security Service is continuing its investigation into recordings of opposition discussions on November 2, in which it is alleged they talked about seizing government buildings. On November 3, at the end of the first day of opposition protests, Kulov announced he was in possession of a computer disk containing the recordings, and handed it over for investigation by the law-enforcement agencies.
Although Kulov subsequently attempted to recall the material, the SNB has pressed ahead with its investigation, and has called in Movement for Reforms leaders for questioning.
Bakyt Beshimov, vice-president of the American University in Central Asia, says the opposition feels let down by Kulov’s performance to date.
“The pro-reform people say Kulov is the main obstacle to change, since he has adopted an [excessively] placatory stance which they believe prevents any positive steps being taken. Instead of acting on principle, [they think] he has avoided raising certain important matters of state,” said Beshimov.
NBCentralAsia’s commentators agree that of Kulov were to go, it would undermine the “tandem” – the term used for the political coalition between him and President Bakiev – depriving it of some of its electoral constituency and probably also leading to the departure of a number of ministers.
Beshimov said that Kulov’s resignation would mark a significant shift in the way the political elite is configured. It is not clear what Kulov would do after he stepped down, nor is it obvious who would succeed him.
Ibraimov explained that under the new constitution, the prime minister can be removed following a vote of no confidence in parliament and subsequent approval by the president; the president can ask him to step down; or he can resign of his own accord.
Realistically, Kulov has a strong chance of keeping his position even if there is a formal change of cabinet.
“There’s no need to over-dramatise this [eventuality]… Kulov could return to government; that is allowed under the constitution,” said Beshimov.
Ibraimov recalled that under the new rules, any political party that has won over 50 per cent of the parliamentary seats electable by proportional representation has the right to nominate a prime minister for approval by the president. Were the government to resign now, there is no party with the required majority so the old method would probably obtain, where the president proposes a name and parliament approves it.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
On November 14, the opposition Movement for Reforms stated that the political situation would become stable if Kulov were to resign voluntarily.
Edil Baisalov, leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, said the main reason for demanding that Kulov and the entire government should go is that they lack the confidence of a majority in parliament. Under Kyrgyzstan’s new constitution, the cabinet is supposed to have parliament’s backing.
Political scientist Tamerlan Ibraimov sees the opposition’s demand as a logical continuation of the demands the Movement for Reforms voiced during last week’s extended protests.
The week-long street demonstrations, during which the opposition called for the resignation of President Kurmanbek Bakiev as well as the prime minister, concluded in a deal in which both sides agreed on a new draft constitution, which came into force immediately after Bakiev signed it on November 9.
Part of the deal hammered out by the authorities and their opponents was that the current legislative and executive, including the president, should stay in office until the end of their terms.
According to Ibraimov, “The government acquires additional powers because of the changes to the constitution, but the opposition is not happy with the prime minister. [Opposition leaders] are continually being summoned for interrogation by the National Security Service, while the president has appointed a new governor in Chuy region, even though this is supposed to be the government’s prerogative.”
The National Security Service is continuing its investigation into recordings of opposition discussions on November 2, in which it is alleged they talked about seizing government buildings. On November 3, at the end of the first day of opposition protests, Kulov announced he was in possession of a computer disk containing the recordings, and handed it over for investigation by the law-enforcement agencies.
Although Kulov subsequently attempted to recall the material, the SNB has pressed ahead with its investigation, and has called in Movement for Reforms leaders for questioning.
Bakyt Beshimov, vice-president of the American University in Central Asia, says the opposition feels let down by Kulov’s performance to date.
“The pro-reform people say Kulov is the main obstacle to change, since he has adopted an [excessively] placatory stance which they believe prevents any positive steps being taken. Instead of acting on principle, [they think] he has avoided raising certain important matters of state,” said Beshimov.
NBCentralAsia’s commentators agree that of Kulov were to go, it would undermine the “tandem” – the term used for the political coalition between him and President Bakiev – depriving it of some of its electoral constituency and probably also leading to the departure of a number of ministers.
Beshimov said that Kulov’s resignation would mark a significant shift in the way the political elite is configured. It is not clear what Kulov would do after he stepped down, nor is it obvious who would succeed him.
Ibraimov explained that under the new constitution, the prime minister can be removed following a vote of no confidence in parliament and subsequent approval by the president; the president can ask him to step down; or he can resign of his own accord.
Realistically, Kulov has a strong chance of keeping his position even if there is a formal change of cabinet.
“There’s no need to over-dramatise this [eventuality]… Kulov could return to government; that is allowed under the constitution,” said Beshimov.
Ibraimov recalled that under the new rules, any political party that has won over 50 per cent of the parliamentary seats electable by proportional representation has the right to nominate a prime minister for approval by the president. Were the government to resign now, there is no party with the required majority so the old method would probably obtain, where the president proposes a name and parliament approves it.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
