Oil and Gas Ambitions Look Over-Optimistic
Oil and Gas Ambitions Look Over-Optimistic
President Saparmurat Niazov has announced a development plan for the Turkmen oil and gas industry which envisages the construction of four new gas export pipelines and anticipated earnings of over 500 billion US dollars. But NBCentralAsia’s energy experts say this ambitious plan looks impracticable given the massive investment it would involve. In addition, the strategy is heavily reliant on assumptions about Turkmenistan’s neighbours.
Speaking at the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council), a sort of supra-parliament, in late October, the president set out a strategy for 2007 to 2030 which would see a total of about one billion tonnes of oil and four trillion cubic metres of gas produced over that period. Oil would bring in total revenues of 260 billion US dollars and gas 288 billion dollars.
Once he had covered the development of the petrochemicals industry and exploration of new deposits, Niazov said that four gas pipelines are under consideration, over and above the existing Central Asia-Centre pipeline which currently takes Turkmen gas to Russia. In 2009, a pipeline to China via Kazakstan will come into operation, with the annual capacity of 30 billion cubic metres, he said. Next up will be a pipeline hugging the Caspian shoreline through Kazakstan and Russia and on to Ukraine. Then there are two other projects: one them a pipeline going to Pakistan and onwards to India, via Afghanistan, with the a proposed capacity of 30 billion cubic metres a year. Finally, Niazov mentioned a pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the United Arab Emirates, UAE.
NBCentralAsia’s energy experts recommend that Niazov’s plan be treated with a good deal of caution. There is little independent evidence that Turkmenistan really has discovered massive reserves of hydrocarbons. The president’s remarks, say the analysts, belong to the world of mythmaking for political purposes.
“Turkmenistan does not allow independent experts in, so it’s unlikely that actual reserves are the same as those cited by the authorities,” a Turkmen economist who asked not to be named told NBCentralAsia.
Other experts think it somewhat illogical to lay a new route taking gas to Europe via the Caspian shoreline, since the Central Asia-Centre pipeline already fulfils that role.
The two remaining options are also problematic. Niazov even acknowledged in his speech that laying a pipeline to Pakistan and India would have to wait until the situation in Afghanistan stabilises.
And although he remarked that “the Emirates are currently short of gas”, the idea that he could sell gas to the UAE seems an unlikely one, since the Gulf region has a surplus of concomitant gas (found in oil deposits). On the subject of this plan, a Kazakstan-based energy expert commented, “It isn’t clear how one would lay a pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the UAE without going through Iran as well. And the moment Tehran is involved, the project becomes impossible, as that will rule out western investment, and none of the other project partners would have sufficient capital.”
As for the president’s plan to build up the petrochemicals industry to make products that are in high demand worldwide, NBCentralAsia’s energy experts expressed scepticism, arguing that Turkmenistan is very short of both skilled professionals and modern technology.
One political commentator from Turkmenistan takes the view that Niazov’s real aim is to make the country look an attractive prospect in terms of its energy resources. That might just prompt international oil and gas companies to pressure western governments not to involve themselves in the country's domestic affairs.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Speaking at the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council), a sort of supra-parliament, in late October, the president set out a strategy for 2007 to 2030 which would see a total of about one billion tonnes of oil and four trillion cubic metres of gas produced over that period. Oil would bring in total revenues of 260 billion US dollars and gas 288 billion dollars.
Once he had covered the development of the petrochemicals industry and exploration of new deposits, Niazov said that four gas pipelines are under consideration, over and above the existing Central Asia-Centre pipeline which currently takes Turkmen gas to Russia. In 2009, a pipeline to China via Kazakstan will come into operation, with the annual capacity of 30 billion cubic metres, he said. Next up will be a pipeline hugging the Caspian shoreline through Kazakstan and Russia and on to Ukraine. Then there are two other projects: one them a pipeline going to Pakistan and onwards to India, via Afghanistan, with the a proposed capacity of 30 billion cubic metres a year. Finally, Niazov mentioned a pipeline through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the United Arab Emirates, UAE.
NBCentralAsia’s energy experts recommend that Niazov’s plan be treated with a good deal of caution. There is little independent evidence that Turkmenistan really has discovered massive reserves of hydrocarbons. The president’s remarks, say the analysts, belong to the world of mythmaking for political purposes.
“Turkmenistan does not allow independent experts in, so it’s unlikely that actual reserves are the same as those cited by the authorities,” a Turkmen economist who asked not to be named told NBCentralAsia.
Other experts think it somewhat illogical to lay a new route taking gas to Europe via the Caspian shoreline, since the Central Asia-Centre pipeline already fulfils that role.
The two remaining options are also problematic. Niazov even acknowledged in his speech that laying a pipeline to Pakistan and India would have to wait until the situation in Afghanistan stabilises.
And although he remarked that “the Emirates are currently short of gas”, the idea that he could sell gas to the UAE seems an unlikely one, since the Gulf region has a surplus of concomitant gas (found in oil deposits). On the subject of this plan, a Kazakstan-based energy expert commented, “It isn’t clear how one would lay a pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the UAE without going through Iran as well. And the moment Tehran is involved, the project becomes impossible, as that will rule out western investment, and none of the other project partners would have sufficient capital.”
As for the president’s plan to build up the petrochemicals industry to make products that are in high demand worldwide, NBCentralAsia’s energy experts expressed scepticism, arguing that Turkmenistan is very short of both skilled professionals and modern technology.
One political commentator from Turkmenistan takes the view that Niazov’s real aim is to make the country look an attractive prospect in terms of its energy resources. That might just prompt international oil and gas companies to pressure western governments not to involve themselves in the country's domestic affairs.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
