Nigeria: Democracy Under Pressure

Veronica Oakeshott
Coordinator of IWPR's Nigeria Elections Support Programme

As international attention focuses on Libya, another oil-rich African state – Nigeria – is in the throes of what in most countries would be regarded as a grave political crisis.

When Nigerians went to the polls on April 2 to elect a new parliament, many arrived to find no election officials or ballot papers waiting for them. In one state, Plateau, people queued for hours without ever getting to vote, while in Lagos, voting continued for an hour after the election had been suspended.

After several hours, the polls were officially closed and the election was postponed to April 4.

Announcing the delay, national election commission chief Attahiru Jega, said some of the voting materials, which were printed abroad for security reasons, had only arrived in the country an hour after polls opened. He blamed suppliers, noting that delivery planes had been diverted to help with the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Meanwhile, in places where ballot papers did arrive on time, they had already been distributed to hundreds of temporary electoral officials by the time polling was called off, opening up opportunities for fraud.

Voters were further bewildered as the date changed again. After wrangling with political parties, the election commission announced another postponement, this time to April 9. Many people were unaware of this further delay, and the normally jam-packed streets of Lagos were empty of traffic as people stayed close to home, just in case.

The 2011 election cycle, billed as the most free and most fair Nigeria has ever had, has descended into chaos. Yet thus far, Nigerians are displaying remarkable stoicism.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has only had democratic government for 16 of its 50 years as an independent state. It is a country which enjoys fabulous oil revenues, producing more barrels per day than Libya, yet average life expectancy is under 50, and energy suppliers cannot ensure a steady supply to homes or businesses.

There are many reasons for Nigerians to be cynical about the political process. They watch as their politicians drive by in flashy 4x4 vehicles and buy up fancy properties around the country. At election time, they open their newspapers to read of bombs going off at political rallies. The roads, chaotic at the best of times, are choked with young men on motorbikes blaring horns, waving flags and threatening violence.

On election day itself, they are confined to their homes and only allowed out to vote. This they have to do on three separate occasions, normally successive Saturdays, for each branch of a bloated, overpaid elected apparatus – parliament, presidency, and state governors and assemblies.

It would be enough to test the enthusiasm of the most committed democrat.

Yet despite it all, they still turn up. Or at least they turned up on April 2 for the first, failed election. Many arrived early, queued in orderly fashion, and when told the election was cancelled, went home peacefully.

The next day the newspapers were filled not with recriminations, but with the good-humoured view that the electoral commission was “doing its best”.

But how much more will the average Nigerian voter put up with?

While the last two presidential elections were characterised by reports of ballot-stuffing and violence, there were hopes that this time things would be different. Indeed, Nigeria has staked its international credibility on ensuring that the 2011 polls are a success. President Goodluck Jonathon has repeatedly expressed a commitment to free and fair elections, and Britain and the United States have jointly ploughed 35 million US dollars into the logistics of the process.

Now the government’s capacity to organise effective and clean elections is being called into question.

At what point does it become impossible for an election to be deemed free and fair because the barriers to participation, in terms of time and patience, are too high? How long before the military men waiting in the wings begin to look like a better option?

As voters prepare to turn out again this weekend, electoral commission head Jega has appealed to them to remain “steadfast in the last lap”. But this lap is in fact part of a marathon. The election season started with voter registering in person in February, and there will be two more elections to go after April 9. Postponing the parliamentary vote has pushed back the presidential election by a week, to April 16. In turn, the final round of voting, for state governors and assemblies, has been put back to April 26 – assuming there are no further changes.

On April 9, voters will be wondering whether the systems are now in place for them to cast their ballots. It is crucial for the electoral commission to get it right this time. Nigerians are prepared to work for their democracy, but they rightly expect it to do a little preparatory work for them, too.

Veronica Oakeshott is Coordinator of IWPR's Nigeria Elections Support Programme.

The views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of IWPR.