More Balanced Parliament Predicted

Analysts and political party officials are predicting Iraq's next parliament will represent a wider spectrum of Iraqis and may include a stronger secular voice.



The Shia-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, which is religiously conservative and holds more seats than any other coalition, is expected to lose some power in the National Assembly as a result of the participation of Sunni Arab coalitions and rival Shia and secular lists.



The Kurdistan Alliance is also projected to suffer if as expected Sunni Arabs, who make up about 20 per cent of the population, head to the polls on December 15. Most had boycotted politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein.



Party leaders and analysts were confident the political dynamic would change in the next parliament with the inclusion of Sunni Arab parties and as secular lists appear to grow in popularity.



The United Iraqi Alliance has been criticised for not controlling security in the country or improving the economy.



Some have also marked the alliance as too conservative. Its leaders, who dominate the Shia-led government, have been accused of igniting sectarianism by launching military offensives against Sunni Arab regions and carrying out mass arrests of Sunnis.



Sadoon Ahmed, an analyst from University of Baghdad's department of political science, said the participation of Sunni Arab coalitions such as the Iraqi Accordance Front in the election "will create a balance in the way parliamentarian decisions are taken".



He noted that Iraqis are also looking to secular leaders such as former prime minister Ayad Allawi, whom many believe is a viable contender for the premier's seat currently occupied by Islamic Dawa Party leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari.



"The religious parties will decrease and liberal parties will have better opportunities," he said.



Qasim Dundun, the head of the Baghdad branch of the Turkoman Front, doubts "the Islamists will obtain a percentage that enables them to take power in Iraq".



That opinion is shared by Qasim al-Sahlani, a leader of the Dawa Party which is one of the main Shia players in the United Iraqi Alliance.



"I doubt an Islamic government will be set up in the foreseeable future as some people think," he said. "The Islamists want to include all other patriotic forces and elements without exception."



He maintained that secularists who fear an Islamic government are ignoring the democratic will of Iraqis.



"If the people are heading towards a regime based on the principles, values and provisions of Islam, what's wrong with that?" he asked. "This is the basis of democracy, which means the opinion of the majority."



Analysts agreed that the influence of Islam cannot be ignored and will play a major role regardless of which parties serve in parliament.



"The secular voice will play a role but might not significantly contradict the Islamists," said Saad Abdul-Wahid, a political analyst in Baghdad.



"Do the secularists came from Mars?" he asked. "They can't create rules or impose orders that contradict religion or the nature of Iraq's conservative society. If anyone dares to touch religion, philosophy or social customs, he will immediately face fierce resistance."



Some Iraqis said they are not concerned who makes up the government. They just want leaders to get the job done.



"We stand by any honourable people who work for the sake of this miserable country and try to bring it out of its plight," said Saad Kadhim, a university professor.



"Actions speak louder than words. The amount of support politicians get from the masses will be based on the amount of good they do for this country."



Dureid Salman is an IWPR trainee journalist in Baghdad. IWPR trainee journalist Zaineb Naji contributed to this report from Baghdad.