Kyrgyzstan's Neighbours Look on with Concern

Although the recent regime change in Kyrgyzstan is not predicted to set off a chain reaction of protests in neighbouring Central Asian states, commentators interviewed by NBCentral Asia say governments in those countries are on their guard against signs of instability.

The mass protests in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek on April 6 and 7 were sparked by popular discontent with their economic position and what they viewed as a corrupt regime. President Kurmanbek Bakiev was ousted and an interim government formed by the opposition came to power.

The violence in Bishkek left 84 people dead and 1,600 injured.

Bakiev sought refuge in his home village, Teyit, in the southern Jalalabad region, where, together with relatives and former officials in his administration, he staged rallies and denounced the new leadership.

On April 16, the stand-off was resolved through the joint intervention of Russia, the United States, and neighbouring Kazakstan which is currently chair of the OSCE.

Kyrgyzstan is of strategic importance to both Russia and the US, as both have military bases there. The Kazaks have traditionally enjoyed a close relationship with Kyrgyzstan.

The outcome was that a Kazak plane flew Bakiev out of Kyrgyzstan to the southern town of Taraz. Once there, he is reported to have sent a letter of resignation.

It has since been reported that Bakiev has left Kazakstan, although it is unclear where he might have gone.

Media coverage of the unrest varied across the region. Kazak and Tajik print and broadcast outlets carried a lot of reports on it, whereas Uzbek and Turkmen media avoided the subject.

Nor has there been much in the way of official reactions from the other Central Asian presidents, apart from Kazakstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev who called for steps to consolidate governance and law and order. The Uzbek foreign ministry said merely that events in Kyrgyzstan were a domestic matter for that country.

Commentators in Uzbekistan doubt that the Kyrgyz scenario could be repeated in their country, but say both the government and ordinary people are have some concerns.

Political scientist Farhod Tolipov of the University of Global Economics and Diplomacy in Tashkent says that despite the media blackout, events in Kyrgyzstan are “the number one subject of public discussion”.

“We’re even having to give lectures at universities to explain to students what really happened in Kyrgyzstan,” said Tolipov. “Yet I’ve never been asked whether something like this could happen in our country. In other words, it’s not admissible even to conceive of the people moving against their president. It is clear from discussions in public that our country doesn’t compare itself to Kyrgyzstan, which for many people is a remote place.”

Other commentators say people with relatives in neighbouring parts of Kyrgyzstan are concerned about the situation. Every day, hundreds of people normally cross at various checkpoints on Uzbek-Kyrgyz border for work or to visit friends and relatives. The border has now been closed following events in Kyrgyzstan.

“Security measures have been significantly stepped up,” said Saidjahon Zainabitdinov, who heads the human rights group Appelyatsiya in the eastern city of Andijan, close to the border with Kyrgyzstan. “For example, the guards outside the prosecutor’s office are now wearing bullet-proof vests, and parking bans are in force outside many government offices.”

Zainabitdinov is sceptical that protests of the kind seen in Kyrgyzstan are possible, given the high level of surveillance by the security services.
 
“Everything is under total control,” he said. “The annual spring campaign designed to find out what’s going on has already started. People are being summoned to the prosecutor’s office for questioning.”

In Turkmenistan, access to the internet is very limited and many Russian and Central Asian websites are blocked. Despite this, news about Kyrgyzstan has leaked out.
 
“There are more policemen patrolling the streets of [the capital] Ashgabat,” said a local commentator. “In the evenings, they’re even checking people’s ID.”

Tajigul Begmedova, a Turkmen dissident and human rights activist based in Bulgaria, says that the authorities are seriously worried.

Many young Turkmen are studying at universities in Kyrgyzstan, and can have an unfettered view of what is going on there.

“The Turkmen authorities cannot sleep easy, they’ve been disturbed,” said Begmedova. “But the population is in a state of hypnosis, so it’s incapable of reacting to events in Kyrgyzstan. People don’t have any way of expressing their views. Thus, there are none of the preconditions  for the Kyrgyz situation to repeat itself in Turkmenistan”.

Yaroslav Razumov, an analyst in Kazakstan, doubts the sudden change of government in Kyrgyzstan, which he said was “predictable and inevitable”, will have wider ramifications for his own country or other regional states.

“Kyrgyzstan is not so large or strong as to pose a danger to anyone, as it doesn’t have a lot of influence in the region,” he argued. “What it needs now more than ever before is support from its neighbours.”

In Tajikistan, political analyst Rashid Abdullo is more concerned that the situation in Kyrgyzstan will have a disruptive effect on economic relations among Central Asian states.

“The irrigation season is beginning… Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are located upstream on the major Central Asian rivers, and we generally cooperating closely on decisions relating to releasing water [for irrigation]. It is now unclear what happens next. It’s obvious no one is going to be thinking about irrigation when all this is going on.”

This article was produced as part of IWPR’s News Briefing CentralAsia output, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.