Kyrgyz-Uzbek Realpolitik

The recent improvement in relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan reflects an increasing trend away from political considerations to a more open, pragmatic exchange based on purely economic interests, say analysts.



On August 24-25, Kyrgyz foreign minister Alikbek Jekshenkulov was in Tashkent setting the stage for a presidential visit at the end of September. The foreign ministry's press service reported that his meetings were conducted in a constructive and friendly atmosphere, with both sides expressing a readiness to improve political and diplomatic cooperation. The major outcome of the visit was an agreement to suspend visa requirements for citizens of the two countries for travel up to 60 days.



Analysts have observed a recent and unequivocal thaw between Bishkek and Tashkent, whose relations over the past year had been markedly cool. After Kyrgyzstan’s change in leadership in March 2005, and the Andijan violence of May the same year, the Uzbek government reacted suspiciously to overtures from the new Kyrgyz government.



But in the past few months, observers have noticed a growing readiness in both countries to tackle both longstanding and more recent issues between the two states, a policy which is leading to tangible results. The willingness to negotiate is stems from a clear recognition of the other side’s interests.



Bishkek’s trump card is still the question of mutually advantageous water resource management. In addition, its policy on refugees deemed criminals by Uzbekistan gives it an added means of gaining Tashkent’s attention.



Tashkent’s strong suit has always been natural gas. Uzbekistan has also been able to play on Kyrgyzstan’s desire for greater security in its portion of the Fergana Valley, which has led to greater cooperation between the two countries' security services in the fight against Islamic extremists.



Analysts believe economic issues now have priority over political concerns in the Kyrgyz-Uzbek relationship.



It is unlikely Kyrgyzstan will be able to get Uzbekistan to reduce gas prices out of political considerations. For now, Uzbekistan intends to honour its current contract to supply its neighbour with gas at 55 US dollars per 1,000 cubic metres until the end of this year, and will also increase the volumes supplied due to increased demand in Kyrgyzstan.



But from January 2007, the price is likely to increase to 100 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres, which will force Kyrgyzstan to seriously review its ability to pay world prices for energy.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)