Kyrgyz Election Update

Sunday, 20 November, 2005

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IWPR

Institute for War & Peace Reporting

The week's news was dominated by opposition protests against the decision to stop former ambassador Roza Otunbaeva from standing for parliament. The former Kyrgyz envoy to the United States and Britain was initially registered as a candidate in the Leninsky district constituency of Bishkek. But within hours electoral officials had overturned the decision, saying Otunbaeva failed to meet residence requirements since she had been out of the country for much of the past five years.

Other ex-diplomats who want to become active in politics have found themselves trapped by the same regulation, even though their time abroad was spent on government business.

Almost immediately, supporters of Otunbaeva, who is a joint leader of the Atajurt political movement, gathered in central Bishkek for what was to become four days of protests ending on January 10.

In a nod to the orange clothing worn by the opposition in Ukraine's recent civil protests, Otunbaeva’s supporters were dressed in yellow – and were later joined by members of the People’s Movement of Kyrgyzstan, who chose pink.

Meanwhile, as in Ukraine, a rival counter-demonstration was quickly organised in support of the authorities. Participants opted for a more conservative blue theme for their placards.

The opposition group suspended their protest pending a parliamentary hearing due on January 17, which is expected to take another look at the election law as it applies to former diplomats. On January 12, a district-level court upheld the electoral commission's decision to bar Otunbaeva's candidacy. Her lawyers will now appeal the ruling at the supreme court.

POLITICS RUNS IN PRESIDENTIAL FAMILY

There had been some concern that one of the reasons for blocking Otunbaeva's candidacy was that the authorities wanted the daughter of President Askar Akaev to stand in the same district of Bishkek. Sure enough, on January 13 a group of "residents, workers and academics" from Leninsky district came up with a nomination for Bermet Akaeva. The previous day she had been nominated by students in the same district.

AUTHORITIES FEAR UKRAINE-STYLE REVOLUTION

In talking about the upcoming ballot, the Kyrgyz authorities have made explicit reference to events in Ukraine and Georgia, where election outcomes were overturned after mass peaceful protests. Their remarks focus on the view that both events were no more than foreign-inspired conspiracies, and devote little attention to the ballot-rigging by unreformed regimes that led to such displays of public anger.

President Akaev took up the theme again on January 12, in an address to the public calling for "resistance to provocateurs and the exporters of velvet revolutions”. Warming to his theme, he said "2005 is a boom year for provocateurs of all kinds, and the most frightening thing is that they now have qualified trainers, who have learned to turn provocations of all types into revolutions of various colours”.

Akaev was supported this week by more than 50 leading academics who spoke out against the "import of velvet revolution". The academics plan to set up a group that backs the president.

The day after Akaev's speech, the government issued a press release denying it had anything to do with a document that purports to be a transcript of a secret cabinet meeting, in which Prime Minister Nikolai Tanaev appears to instruct officials and police to engage in war on the opposition and stop it winning seats in parliament. The transcript has been widely reported in local media, but the government insists it is a fake and that no such meeting took place.

OPPOSITION SUSPICIOUS OF GOVERNMENT CURBS

Political parties and groups campaigning against President Akaev's administration have been watching closely for signs of a clampdown. On January 11, a number of prominent opposition leaders discovered what looked like an orchestrated smear campaign, with their names painted along orange-coloured US dollar symbols outside their houses and apartment blocks. The graffiti mirrored the authorities frequent references to Ukraine (in which orange was the opposition colour) and alleged foreign interference.

On January 14, the coalition of non-government groups “For Democracy and Civil Society” issued a statement protesting against the previous day's edict from Bishkek city council on the procedure for holding demonstrations. The coalition said the new rules – by introducing a permit system - represented a restriction on people's constitutional right of peaceful assembly.

Two days earlier the group appealed to the Kyrgyz government to ensure that government media covered the election in an objective and unbiased manner. At the moment, it said, such media are breaking the election law and denying people the chance to make a free and informed choice at the ballot-box.

POLITICAL PARTIES

Two pro-Akaev parties held congresses in the week. On January 12, Adilet (Justice) met and picked 27 people to stand as party candidates. Another 22 will be running as independents. Alga Kyrgyzstan – Forward Kyrgyzstan – convened two days earlier and selected 26 and 49 candidates as party nominees and independents, respectively.

Meanwhile, a hitherto unknown youth movement called Kelechek (The Future) used a leafleting campaign to urge voters not to back either Alga Kyrgyzstan or Adilet.

ELECTION PREPARATIONS

A new project launched by the Association of Civil Society Support Centres will provide training to 750 agents of parliamentary candidates deputies. Designed to raise their awareness of how fair and transparent elections should work, the programme is supported by the Soros-Foundation-Kyrgyzstan.

Prime minister Tanaev told journalists on January 11 that to date 7,000 Kyrgyz citizens resident abroad have registered to vote at the country's foreign embassies. That is a tiny fraction of the total number of possible voters - as Tanaev himself noted, there are anywhere between 300,000 and 700,000 Kyrgyz nationals in Russia alone.