Kulov Seeks to Unify Opposition

Onetime close associate of the president’s and former prime minister Felix Kulov has announced that he intends “to unify and head” Kyrgyzstan’s opposition forces in the face his “deep disappointment” with the current government.



Analysts say the opposition will become more active this spring as a result of Kulov’s moves, but add that everything depends on whether other government critics are ready to join him.



At the end of January, President Kurmanbek Bakiev decided not to put Kulov forward as prime minister for a third time – parliament had already rejected him twice – and instead replaced him with current premier Azim Isabekov.



Many observers have waited keenly for Kulov’s reaction to this move to see what the disgruntled half of the broken alliance would do next.



After the Tulip Revolution of March 2005, which saw President Askar Akaev deposed by a popular revolt, the main contenders for his job, Bakiev and Kulov, agreed to join forces in the election and divide the two highest posts between them.



In February 14 statement Kulov reminded the president that his supporters had not voted for Bakiev in the last presidential election, but for the alliance.



Kulov says that he plans to unify the opposition and become its leader.



“I have no other choice and must combat the real threats that, if unopposed, can lead the country into a catastrophe,” he said.

Kulov’s statement could consolidate the opposition forces, says Muratbek Imanaliev, the president of the Institute for Public Policy.



“Whether Kulov can consolidate the opposition depends on his political platform and his personal activity,” he said.



Emil Aliev, leader of the Ar Namys party created by Kulov in 1999, says political forces started to rally round Kulov before the February 14 statement.



“The fact that many leaders of the opposition parties have attended the press conference today demonstrates that the opposition is uniting around Kulov,” said Aliev.



Some opposition leaders say they approve of Kulov’s decision. Melis Eshimkanov, a member of parliament, says believes that Kulov has acted honestly and he cannot tolerate what is happening in Kyrgyzstan.



Omurbek Abdrahmanov, member of political council of the Ata Meken party, thinks that the opposition will be more active now with Kulov at the helm.



Other commentators doubt that the opposition forces will work together in an effective alliance, however.



“Kulov is ready to become leader of the opposition, but that doesn’t mean he can unify the opposition. The country’s opposition is now very diverse and has disparate views,” said Erkin Alymkulov, member of the Ata Meken party and vice speaker of the parliament.



Others doubt whether Kulov is really up to the job.

NGO activist and NBCentralAsia commentator, Edil Baisalov, says that while he was prime minister, Kulov was not able to contribute positively to the country’s constitutional problems and was also not able to promote democratic changes.



A number of political scientists say they are worried that Kulov’s ambitions may be destabilising. Political scientist Nur Omarov says this could happen as soon as next month.



Valentin Bogatyrev, vice president of the Vostok think-tank, agrees that tensions could escalate, bolstering the authority of Kulov in particular and the opposition in general.



“If he is persecuted, the situation will escalate, and the authority of Kulov and the opposition will rise. Such situation is soon to happen. It may happen in March,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)