Kazakstan Risks Reverting to One Party-Rule
Kazakstan Risks Reverting to One Party-Rule
If Kazakstan’s parliament votes to dissolve itself ahead of time, an election is likely to leave the presidential party Nur Otan in absolute control of the legislature, NBCentralAsia analysts say.
On May 21, Amzebek Jolshibekov, head of Nur Otan’s parliamentary faction, said the lower house or Majilis might opt to dissolve itself, which would necessitate an early election.
Nur Otan holds most seats in parliament and currently has around 900,000 members.
Under the constitutional amendments adopted on May 22, the Majilis would be expanded from 77 to 107 seats, and all would be elected by proportional representation from party lists, instead of just ten at present.
The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2009, but if the Majilis was dissolved when its current session finishes in June, the ballot could be brought forward to August this year.
NBCentralAsia analysts warn that if that happens, parliament will end up being completely dominated by a single party.
“Nur Otan aside, most of the parties wouldn’t be able to prepare properly for such an election,” said political scientist Berik Abdugaliev.
The other parties, including the opposition, are just not geared up to fight for seats so soon, and would not win more than a handful, he said.
The result would be that the much talked-about process of political party development would be cuts short.
Political scientist Berik Barlybaev agrees that an early election would stall political development, since “only Nur Otan has a chance”.
Nur Otan would then grow so powerful that Barlybaev believes it would be comparable with the might of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union.
“It will be similar to how things were in Soviet times. There will be maslikhats and akimats [local assemblies and government]… but all the people in them will be Nur Otan members. We will end up with a system where Nur Otan is the dominant party and completely controls all the structures of power,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
On May 21, Amzebek Jolshibekov, head of Nur Otan’s parliamentary faction, said the lower house or Majilis might opt to dissolve itself, which would necessitate an early election.
Nur Otan holds most seats in parliament and currently has around 900,000 members.
Under the constitutional amendments adopted on May 22, the Majilis would be expanded from 77 to 107 seats, and all would be elected by proportional representation from party lists, instead of just ten at present.
The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2009, but if the Majilis was dissolved when its current session finishes in June, the ballot could be brought forward to August this year.
NBCentralAsia analysts warn that if that happens, parliament will end up being completely dominated by a single party.
“Nur Otan aside, most of the parties wouldn’t be able to prepare properly for such an election,” said political scientist Berik Abdugaliev.
The other parties, including the opposition, are just not geared up to fight for seats so soon, and would not win more than a handful, he said.
The result would be that the much talked-about process of political party development would be cuts short.
Political scientist Berik Barlybaev agrees that an early election would stall political development, since “only Nur Otan has a chance”.
Nur Otan would then grow so powerful that Barlybaev believes it would be comparable with the might of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union.
“It will be similar to how things were in Soviet times. There will be maslikhats and akimats [local assemblies and government]… but all the people in them will be Nur Otan members. We will end up with a system where Nur Otan is the dominant party and completely controls all the structures of power,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
