Kazakstan Protest Movement Falters

Wednesday, 13 June, 2012

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Saule Mukhametrakhimova

Central Asia Editor

A protest movement launched in Kazakstan in the wake of December’s violence in the western town of Janaozen is losing momentum after failing to gain widespread public support.

Fourteen demonstrators were killed and more than 100 injured when police opened fire on protesting oil workers in Janaozen on December 16. Witnesses said police fired indiscriminately into the crowd, and footage posted on YouTube appeared to support this account. Police countered that they were forced to defend themselves, and the authorities backed their version of events.

Anger over the violence and the official response to it led to the creation of a new movement of self-styled “Dissenters” (Nesoglasnye), which staged monthly protests calling for justice over Janaozen, as well as for wider democratic reforms.

Analysts say the Dissenters’ Movement initially captured the mood of anger over Janaozen, shared by an admittedly small community of concerned citizens. They also note the significance of a movement that has latterly been led mainly by civil society activists, unlike most opposition groups which are commonly associated with former government officials and businessmen.

The movement was born on January 17 at a protest in Kazakstan’s second city Almaty held by the opposition National Social Democratic Party, also known as OSDP-Azat, two days after a parliamentary election, predictably won by President Nursultan Nazarbaev’s Nur Otan party.

A second protest arranged by OSDP-Azat on January 28, proved to be the Dissenters’ high point, though this attracted only a few hundred. Similar rallies were held subsequently in Almaty, in the capital Astana, as well as in several other cities, but were typically attended by only a handful of people.

The authorities did not grant permission for these public gatherings and arrested some organisers and participants, jailing them for 15 days or imposing fines.

Ermek Narymbaev, a protester and leader of the Arman workers’ movement, described how activists including Bakytjan Toregojina, head of human rights group Ar-Rukh-Hak, take charge of the Dissenters’ Movement after OSDP-Azat’s involvement was scaled down.

Top OSDP-Azat figures failed to attend a protest on February 25 because the authorities arrested their co-leader Bulat Abilov and deputy leader Amirjan Kosanov before the event even began, Narymbaev said. “Toregojina picked up [the leadership] baton and set up a Facebook group called the Dissenters, which was targeted twice by hackers from the Committee for National Security.”

One reason why OSDP-Azat assumed a lower profile in the movement may have been to avoid suffering the same fate as another opposition party, Alga. Not only was Alga’s leader Vladimir Kozlov among those rounded up in the wake of Janaozen, Kazak prosecutors have said associates of exiled banker Mukhtar Ablyazov – who is connected to the party – were planning terror attacks in Almaty. Ablyazov has said the allegations are unfounded. (For more on this, see Questions Over Kazakstan ‘Terror Plot’.)

Narymbaev joined the Dissenters’ Movement when he was released on amnesty in February after serving part of a four-year prison sentence on a conviction of "resisting police" while he was in custody after being detained at an opposition protest.

According to Narymbaev, the Dissenters’ Movement is seeking fair trials for the protestors accused of sparking the violence in Janaozen. It wants officials who ordered the shooting to be held to account, and the government to stop prosecuting opposition activists and others on political grounds. More generally, the movement wants democratic rights to be honoured, such as freedom of assembly, free and fair elections, and an independent judiciary.

The Dissenters’ latest outing on June 2 saw around 100 people gather around the statue of the iconic 19th-century Kazak poet Abay Kunanbai-Uly in Almaty. They dispersed quickly, apparently to avoid the risk of protest leaders being arrested.

As the event drew to a close, one of the organisers announced that the Dissenter’s Movement would take a break until autumn.

Given the government clampdown on opposition and rights groups since Janaozen, and the localised form that protests take in Kazakstan  some observers say it is unsurprising that the Dissenters' Movement has failed to make more of an impact.

Since Kazakstan is the world’s ninth biggest country but has a population of only 16 million, discontent in one area does not necessarily spread quickly to another, and people in different parts of the country do not always identify with each other’s concerns.

Now that the Janaozen trials are drawing to a close, public attention is drifting away from the issue. This is likely to further marginalise the protest movement and further reduce the public attention it receives.

On June 4, sentences were handed down to those accused of inciting the unrest. Of the 37 people charged, 13 received between three and seven years in prison and 24 were released. Of those released, some were found not guilty, others were convicted but amnestied, while the remainder received suspended sentences.

At a separate trial involving residents of Shetpe, a village close to Janaozen where one person died in smaller-scale violence in December, 11 men were convicted in May. Four were sent to prison for between four and seven years, and the rest were released under amnesty or given a suspended sentence.

The only case involving police implicated in the shootings ended in late May with five officers sentenced to between five and seven years for overstepping their powers. Another officer was given five years for detaining people illegally in Janaozen.

Some commentators say poor leadership and lack of imagination explain why the Dissenters’ Movement failed to make a lasting impact on a population that is by and large apathetic.

Alisher Elikbaev, blogger and founder of the popular photography and video website Vox Populi, said people wanted leaders who were charismatic and recognisable personalities, rather than opposition politicians or rich businessmen.

Many opposition groups feature former politicians or businessmen who turned against the government after falling from favour, leading some to suspect that their real ambition is to restore their own power and influence rather than build a democratic society.

“[A leader] should be someone who isn’t tainted by past association with the authorities,” Elikbaev said.

Several thousand people signed up to the Dissenters’ Facebook campaign, but Elikbaev pointed out that online followers sitting at home would not necessarily be prepared to come out and face the police.

“Going online and clicking the mouse to join a protest is so much easier than going into the streets and joining a protest,” he said. “Some of them may think they’ve expressed their support by clicking ‘Like’ on Facebook, so the problem has been solved,” he said.

That way, people get to feel part of the opposition without making any effort or risking the loss of a state salary or benefits, he added.

The movement was also undermined by its failure to expand outside Almaty, where life is relatively comfortable and opportunities more available than, say, in the countryside.

“Unfortunately, young people in Almaty are largely apolitical. Only handful are interested in politics,” Elikbaev said.

Adil Jalilov, editorial director of the Vlast.kz news website, said that despite a promising start, the Dissenters failed to grow into an opinion-shaping organisation.

“There are many reasons for that – fear, lack of clear planning and rules, and demands that are too broad,” he said. “What’s more, many urbanites like those in Almaty don’t feel an affinity with the people of Janaozen.”

The movement also failed to find ways of reaching out beyond the traditional opposition-leaning constituency to mobilise broader support. It could, Jalilov argues, have recruited pop musicians and well-known actors to build support.

“They failed to engage young people, leading intellectuals, opinion-formers and celebrities,” Jalilov said.

Narymbaev acknowledged the weaknesses of the protest movement, including lack of coordination and overall leadership.

He noted that a hard core of activists identifying themselves as the “Almaty Dissenters’ Club” plan to continue operating through the summer, and to engage special-interest campaigning groups.

“We want to organise activities tied to various groups working on social issues like the rising price of public transport and petrol, and to arrange public meetings to discuss these matters,” he said.

After engaging these groups, the Almaty Dissenters plan to build up their numbers and get 7,000 protesters out into the streets to mark the first anniversary of Janaozen this December, Narymbaev said.

Given what happened at the June 2 protest, where the actual participants were nearly outnumbered by plain-clothes officers and journalists, the movement has some way to go.

Saule Mukhametrakhimova is IWPR Central Asia editor in London.