Kazakgate” Unlikely to Cloud Nazarbaev Visit

The high-profile trial of James Giffen, accused of handing over huge bribes to top Kazak officials, is unlikely to cast a shadow on President Nursultan Nazarbaev’s upcoming visit to the United States, say NBCentralAsia analysts.



On September 12 the Southern District Court of New York is scheduled to conclude its preliminary hearings in the case. According to the still ongoing investigation, Giffen, a former advisor to President Nazarbaev on energy matters, stands accused of handing over bribes worth 78 million US dollars to two high-level Kazak officials. The money was allegedly given in exchange for deals between the government of Kazakstan and several oil companies seeking preferential terms for oil drilling licenses.



The Giffen case, which has become known as “Kazakgate”, has gained added significance in light of the new global war on corruption announced by the administration of US president George Bush in early August.



Nevertheless, analysts say there are several reasons why the Bush administration will pay little heed to the Giffen affair. In the first place, Washington will not want to lose its only reliable partner in Central Asia, a region where trade and security blocs led by Russia and China are making the United States increasingly uneasy. Nor is it in the US interest to quarrel with the Nazarbaev regime at a time of increasing competition among leading nations to win access to Central Asia’s energy resources.



After relations between the United States and Uzbekistan soured last year, resulting in the closing of the US base and the departure of American forces from that country, and more recently the tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions this summer that threatened to harm the US-Kyrgyz relationship, Washington is notably short of reliable partners in the region.



Thus, Washington will be prepared to overlook the Kazakgate issue in order to maintain its geopolitically vital relationship with Astana, say observers.



Nazarbaev is due to visit the United States at the end of September for high-level talks. There is every expectation that these negotiations will proceed without a hiccup, a view reinforced by the frequent recent visits by American officials to Kazakstan and the conclusion of several constructive agreements. Most notable in this regard was the May visit of US vice president Dick Cheney, during which he expressed admiration for Kazakstan’s progress without mentioning the slow pace of democratisation, as he had done earlier in reference to Russia.



Analysts says it is possible Nazarbaev will achieve his main objective for the visit: securing US support for Kazakstan’s bid to chair the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 2009. The United States and the United Kingdom have reacted with scepticism to this proposal, saying the country needs to carry out a wide range of democratic reforms, ranging from the electoral system and the judiciary to transforming the media sector.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)