Kazak OSCE Bid Decision Delayed

Just one year ago, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe criticised presidential elections in Kazakstan which saw the incumbent Nursultan Nazarbaev win more than 90 per cent of the vote. Today, Nazarbaev is leading the campaign to win his country the chairmanship of the OSCE in 2009.



But the president will have to wait a little longer to find out whether his country will get the political acceptance it wants from the international community. An OSCE foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on December 5 was expected to rule on the Kazak bid but decided to delay its decision until 2007.



The United States and Britain have criticised the country’s OSCE aspirations, citing human rights concerns. Germany, however, is promoting Kazakstan’s bid as part of a policy of engaging with this oil-rich Central Asian nation.



Kazakstan’s deputy foreign minister Rakhat Aliev, who is Nazarbaev’s son-in-law, described the postponement as a “victory for Kazakh diplomacy”, arguing that by next year Kazakstan will be a much stronger position to gain the support it needs to win the OSCE chair.



Some local analysts are also hopeful that Kazakstan will be successful.



Oleg Sidorov, an advisor with the Central Asian Foundation in Support of Democracy, said Kazakstan is at last being recognised as an equal partner in the OSCE grouping.



“Our status as a peripheral state supplying raw materials [oil] to Europe is slowly being changed into a country with the power to influence major global processes,” he said.



Yerasyl Abdylkasymov, who was Nazarbaev’s opponent in the 2005 presidential poll, is also optimistic that OSCE foreign ministers will vote for Kazakstan next time they review the matter, especially because Russia – an ally of the Central Asian state – will back the bid.



He believes the country’s abundant natural resources – along with support from Russia – give it powerful leverage.



“Europe is highly dependant on hydrocarbons - oil and gas. Kazakstan possesses enormous amounts of these resources,” he said. “Therefore, with some pressure applied by Russia, Europe’s main oil and gas supplier, the West will be forced to make concessions and allow Kazakstan to chair the OSCE.”



Western countries such as Germany claim that thwarting Kazakstan’s leadership ambitions will simply alienate the country from the OSCE and drive it closer to Russia.



Others, however, disagree that the country will turn away from Europe if its candidacy is rejected.



“Fears that it will rush towards the Islamic world or fully align itself with Russia are without foundation,” said Eduard Poletaev, a journalist from Almaty. In the event that the bid fails, he believes “Kazakstan will seek out other opportunities to achieve what it wants”.



It may still have to. The OSCE’s most powerful member, the US, together with Britain, has yet to be convinced that Kazakstan would make a suitable chair.



Critics point to Kazakstan’s spotty human rights record, its restrictive laws and its failure to introduce democratic political system as proof that it is not yet ready.



All this has led some diplomats to suggest that a 2011 bid would be more appropriate and would give the country longer to address these human rights concerns.



But Ninel Fokina, who heads the Helsinki Group in Kazakhstan, is doubtful that it will be ready even then.



“We do not meet the high requirements that a country chairing this organisation is supposed to meet. We do not comply with its human rights standards. Even 10 years would not be enough to improve our performance to that level,” she said.



However, some argue that human rights concerns have little to do with some OSCE members’ reluctance to see Kazakstan at the helm of the OSCE.



Murat Laumulin, an ex-diplomat and currently a research fellow at the Kazakh Institute of Strategic Studies, blames geopolitics reminiscent of the Cold War era.



“There are human rights violations in the Baltic states as well, but Europe closes its eyes to this,” he said. “There is a big geopolitical game going on in the region. The West fears that Russia’s role would be enhanced if Kazakstan chaired the OSCE.”



Abdujalil Abdurasulov is an independent journalist in Almaty