Iran Unlikely to Join Former Soviet Security Grouping

Iranian accession to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, would upset the current geopolitical balance in the region and aggravate relations between the former Soviet security grouping and the West, say NBCentralAsia observers.



On May 14, Nikolai Bordyuzha, secretary general of the CSTO, said that Iran would be able to join the grouping if it applied. Bordyuzha pointed out that the CSTO already cooperates with Iran on a number of security issues.



Most political observers polled by NBCentralAsia say that Iranian accession to the CSTO would upset the region’s geopolitical balance given Tehran’s fraught relations with the West over its nuclear programme.



“Iran’s entry to the CSTO would have a direct impact on the geopolitical balance, mainly due to the Iranian nuclear doctrine,” said Kyrgyz analyst Marat Kazakbaev. “If Iran were to join, the organisation would be alienated from western countries, and the move would also complicate the situation in Central Asia.”



Another Bishkek-based political scientist, Emil Juraev, agrees, arguing asserting that Bordyuzha’s statement is premature and fails to take into account the CSTO’s specific character as a military grouping.



“If it [Iran] joins, the CSTO will be weakened and over time, it could turn into the kind of distasteful organisation that countries join purely as a formality,” said Juraev.



The CSTO came into being as the Collective Security Treaty 15 years ago to manage regional security following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its current members are Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.



Askar Nursha, a foreign policy expert at the Kazakstan Institute for Strategic Studies, says Bordyuzha’s statement will not be supported by CSTO member states, judging by the strong disapproval that was voiced when it was proposed that Iran join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, another security grouping that includes Central Asian states, Russia plus China.



“Kazakstan has already stated that SCO countries - still less the CSTO - are not ready to have Iran as a member,” said Nursha.



“This organisation can be compared in significance with NATO. It is structured as a military and political organisation with a clear area of responsibility. Iran does not fall into the CSTO’s] area of responsibility.”



However, some experts including Leonid Bondarets, a military expert in Kyrgyzstan, believe the proposal is being shot down too quickly and the benefits of Iranian involvement in the CSTO have been underestimated.



“With the addition of Iran’s armed forces, the organisation could expand and grow into a powerful defence organisation,” he said. “The CSTO’s external borders would extend far to the south, and this would definitely benefit other members of the organisation, who would be better protected from possible aggression, including terrorist attack.”



Observers say admitting a new country into the CTSO is a long and complicated process, as every member state has to give its assent, and the legislation underpinning the grouping then has to be amended accordingly.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)