How Real is Islamic Threat in Kyrgyzstan?

A recent spate of attacks involving suspected Islamic militants has raised further concerns of instability in Kyrgyzstan, although analysts are divided on how great the risk is. 

Three policemen were killed on January 4 in the capital Bishkek while conducting routine ID checks. The killers were said to be members of the same Islamic radical group targeted in a police raid the following day, which ended in the death of three armed men and a member of the security services. The authorities said the militant group was also behind a bombing near the venue of a high-profile trial on November 30, and an attempted bomb attack outside the capital’s police headquarters on December 24.

Interior Minister Zarylbek Rysaliev said, “Our information is that these people were planning to carry out acts of terrorism in Bishkek… to sow panic and chaos among the police force, above all, and also among the general population.”

Religious affairs analyst Kadyr Malikov said there were numerous Islamic “jamoats” or informal groups, of which almost all were moderates even if they did not follow the line of the official clerical hierarchy.

In tackling violent extremists, police must avoid indiscriminate repression of these non-violent jamoats, he said, warning that such actions could turn Kyrgyzstanturning into another Dagestan, a republic in the Russian Caucasus where religious and ethnic tensions have created a deeply divided society.

Malikov said the minority of real extremists in Kyrgyzstan appeared to have been influenced by external forces and ideas.

A contrasting view was expressed by Tolekan Ismailova, head of the Citizens Against Corruption NGO, and Aziza Abdyrasulova of the Kylym Shamy rights group, who voiced doubts about whether individuals whom police had detained really were Islamic radicals.

Other analysts said the casualties that police suffered on January 4 and 5 incidents raised questions about how well prepared the security forces were.

The second report in this radio package asked how likely foreign investment was following nearly a year of political instability.

Thanks to a parliamentary election followed by the formation of a coalition government, things have settled down a lot since the April 2010 uprising that unseated President Kurmanbek Bakiev, and the massive outbreak of ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan June in which over 400 people died.

Businessmen say their foreign partners got cold feet after the unrest, and plans to invest fell apart.

Almaz Sazbakov, head of the investment department at the Ministry for Economic Development, said investment figures for 2010 compared badly with those for the previous year, and said it was instability that drove away many investors.

“It was a major setback for us,” he said.

Economist Jumakadyr Akeneev called for measures to attract foreign investors for the long term, such as offering them the chance to acquire higher stakes in local enterprise than they are currently allowed, and rights to lease land for longer periods.

Political analyst Mars Sariev said everything hinged on investors regaining confidence in Kyrgyzstan as a country with a functioning government and parliament that were pursuing stable economic policies and upholding the rule of law.

The audio programme, in Russian and Kyrgyz, went out on national radio stations in Kyrgyzstan, as part of IWPR project work funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.