House Prices Stunt Population Growth

President Nursultan Nazarbaev may be trying to boost population figures in Kazakstan by offering cash benefits, but without affordable housing, people are unlikely to start having more children.



In his annual address to the nation on February 28, President Nazarbaev proposed measures to boost population growth including increasing government spending on child support, introducing compulsory insurance for pregnant women and maintaining state pension contributions for working women who take the statutory one year’s maternity leave.



Nazarbaev is confident that the 19 billion tenge, or 150 million US dollar, plan for 2008 will encourage people to have more children.



Despite being the size of Western Europe, Kazakstan’s population is just slightly over 15 million and is only rising at the rate of around 0.33 per cent every year. Even though neighbouring China is trying to curb its 1.5 billion population through the one-child policy, its birth rate is still double that in Kazakstan. Uzbekistan is five times higher.



Manash Tatimov, a demographer at the Central Asian University, says Kazakstan is not experiencing a demographic crisis, and Nazarbaev’s measures are just a step toward ensuring stable population growth.



“The demographic situation has been improving in Kazakstan over the past seven years and the number of births is growing. There is no demographic crisis. We have overcome it and avoided this potential block to economic growth,” he said.



While most NBCentralAsia analysts agree there are no signs of a demographic crisis, there are some worrying indicators, which in fact prompted Nazarbaev’s programme.



The country has a high percentage of older people and a low birth rate in comparison with neighbouring states, and has experienced a huge increase in seasonal foreign migrants over the past ten years.



“The government realises that since it is surrounded by countries with high demographic rates – by which I mean China and Uzbekistan – it must encourage not only a higher birth rate but also immigration [by ethnic Kazaks] to create a strong state,” said NBCentralAsia analyst Eduard Poletaev.



Despite government efforts to improve the demographics in Kazakstan, Poletaev doesn’t think the plan will work if real estate prices continue to rise.



“Property prices are so high that many people don’t even think about having children,” he said



Political scientist Ilyas Korsanov, a fellow at the Centre for Public Issues Analysis, says that the demographic problems should be solved in conjunction with housing initiatives.



“In order to change birth rates dramatically, a number of significant measures should be taken to provide housing, provide loan [subsidies] for every child that is born, and extend monthly benefits [for new parents] from one year to three,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)