Government Shake-Up Seen as Pointless Exercise

Reorganising some Turkmen ministries and abolishing others in an attempt to make the government perform better is likely to amount to little more than a purge of ministers, say analysts interviewed by NBCentralAsia. The shake-up could also have a damaging effect on the economy, they warn.



At a recent cabinet meeting, President Saparmurat Niazov said officials were always complaining they did not have sufficient powers. In fact, he said, they were ignorant of the authority vested in them, and the legislation that defines how they should operate was not working.



As a solution, Niazov proposed abolishing or merging a number of ministries and departments in the textile, agricultural, food, mining and transport sectors.



Observers based in Turkmenistan and abroad say the president’s plan may look like a well-intentioned way of improving government, but in reality it will amount to another round of purges of top officials.



Niazov has been venting increasing irritation with his officials’ performance. He is particularly annoyed by poor agricultural results, as was clear from his recent dismissals of those in charge of cotton and wheat production.



He began tightening his grip on officials in the mid-Nineties, when he ordered the appointment of secret service officers as deputy ministers and deputy heads of government agencies. A special directive dating from 2000 bans ministers from expressing their views in public, on pain of dismissal.



Observers believe this harsh style of management has had a negative impact on the economy, and has contributed to making Turkmenistan entirely dependant on the revenues it gets from oil and gas exports. Enterprise heads cannot achieve their output targets because they have no independence, their management methods are unsuited to the market economy, and production systems are inefficient.



“The authorities want big harvests, greater oil and gas production, and more manufacturing, but they go about achieving this through threats and arrests rather than economic methods,” an Ashgabat-based economist told NBCentralAsia.



Annadurdy Hajaev, an expert on the Turkmen economy, says reform can only come through strategic analysis and forecasting. The authorities must listen to the views of economists and allow the experts to come up with ideas. But this will be difficult, since the statistical agencies have for years been publishing inflated data on economic performance, concealing the real state of affairs.



“Administrative reform per se will achieve nothing unless it is accompanied by profound analysis, transparent statistics and clearly-defined goals and methods,” said Hajaev.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)