Government Heavy-Handedness Could Backfire

Despite the violent conclusion to last week’s opposition demonstration last week, street protests are likely to remains the preferred method for voicing discontent in Kyrgyzstan. Further disturbances are more than likely if the authorities step up pressure on leaders of the opposition, say NBCentralAsia observers.



An investigation is still under way into who was responsible for the violence which broke out in Bishkek on April 19, when the rally on Bishkek’s main square was dispersed by police using tear gas and stun grenades. So far, protesters who threw stones and bottles at policemen defending the parliament building have been blamed for the security forces’ reaction.



Opposition leaders and organisers of the rally, at which calls for an early presidential election were made, are being interrogated by the Committee for National Security. According to human rights activist Tolekan Ismailova, around 150 protesters have been held for two days without legal justification. The print-runs of several opposition newspapers have also been seized.



During a parliamentary session on April 23, deputy Temir Sariev urged the authorities to stop persecuting the opposition. He said police were continuing to round up participants in the rally.



The same day, the Ar-Namys party, which is led by opposition leader and former prime minister Felix Kulov, issued a statement accusing the authorities of launching a campaign of “political terror” against opposition supporters.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, argues that if the authorities deal harshly with the opposition leaders, it will only give the latter reason to call out their supporters for further rallies.



He said the violent conclusion to last week’s demonstration does not mean the opposition will be put off staging more protests in the future.



“Having an opposition is normal for a democratic state, so it can’t be ruled out that the opposition will organise protests on one or another issue,” he said.



Political scientist Marat Kazakbaev says the recent demonstrations have made the authorities realise that the public is becoming more politically active, and more prepared to hold the authority’s actions up to scrutiny.



“If constitutional change and other kinds of reforms to the system are delayed, there could be a further outbreak of public discontent. The authorities will have to take the opposition’s demands into account and react to them properly,” he said.



Political scientist Alexander Kniazev believes the opposition will have to change its tactics if it is to win public support for future protests.



“The opposition needs to understand that unless it has… an economic development programme, it will find it hard to get people out onto the streets. Demands like calling for the president’s resignation are not enough on their own,” said Kniazev.



Kazakbaev said that the authorities must not employ repressive measures against opposition leaders as this could antagonise people from the north of Kyrgyzstan. Many commentators have stressed the regional aspect of the current political struggle, given that the opposition protesters come mainly from the north, and have been calling on President Kurmanbek Bakiev, a southerner, to resign.



After the rally was broken up, Kulov alleged that the police forces deployed for the purpose had been drafted in from southern Kyrgyzstan.



Late on April 23, Kyrgyz media reported that Omurbek Suvanaliev, a former interior minister who is a close associate of Kulov and a member of his United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan, had been arrested by National Security Committee and could be held for the next three days. Another opposition leader, Omurbek Abdrakhmanov, was detained earlier in the day.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)