Georgia Unlikely to Get Turkmen Gas

Georgia has been counting on buying Turkmen gas to free itself from dependence on Russian energy, and also in hopes of becoming a westward transit route for gas, but NBCentralAsia experts cast doubt on this, say Ashgabat will not risk its upsetting its own relationship with Russia.



Meeting Turkmen president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov in Ashgabat on March 25, Georgian prime minister Zurab Nogaideli said Georgia wanted to import Turkmen gas for its own use. Georgia needs 1.8 million cubic metres of natural gas a year, but is forced to buy most of it at high prices from the Russian giant Gazprom, while the rest comes from Azerbaijan’s Caspian deposits.



The Georgian prime minister also said his country was ready to act as a “reliable partner” transporting Turkmen gas to world markets through the south Caucasus. According to NBCentralAsia sources close to the Turkmen government, Nogaideli lobbied for Georgia to play a role in the project to build the Transcaspian Gas Pipeline, TGP, which would carry gas under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and Georgia and on to Turkey. If the pipeline was laid, Georgia would no longer be dependent on Russia gas.



However, some economic analysts say that however willing Georgia is to offer its territory as a transit route, that will not be enough to make the TGP project happen. Much has been said about the pipeline, but to date little progress has been made on it.



According to Gulnur Rahmatullina, head of economic studies at the Kazak Institute for Strategic Studies, TGP is an ephemeral idea that faces major stumbling blocks such as the unresolved legal status of the Caspian and the environmental risks of laying a pipeline on the seabed.



Nor is Georgia in a position to make a substantial contribution to a project of this kind, given its halting economic growth and its current debts to energy suppliers.



Rovshan Ibrahimov, an expert at the International Strategic Research Organisation in Turkey, agrees that Tbilisi can offer only political support for the project, not investment. But it could stimulate interest on the part of Turkmenistan and other energy producers by offering competitive transit and storage fees



Kazakstan-based political scientist Maksim Kaznacheev thinks it highly unlikely that Georgia will take part in a Caspian energy projects, because Ashgabat will not put its gas export arrangements with Russia at risk.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)