Gas Alliance Pursues Political Goals
Monday, 6 November, 2006
Gas Alliance Pursues Political Goals
Monday, 6 November, 2006
On October 30, Valery Yazev, who heads the Russian parliament’s committee on energy, transport and communications, proposed that an alliance should be forged by Russia, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, Ukraine and Iran. The idea is that it would come to control half the world’s reserves of natural gas. Russia would play the lead role in the group since it is such a major exporter.
According to Yazev, the alliance will resolve the dispute over the Energy Charter Treaty by which the European Union wants to secure rights to invest in the Russian gas market. Moscow opposes this, and the issue has created tensions with the EU.
A source in Kazakstan’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources who works on gas industry matters described Yazev’s proposal as shaky and almost impossible to implement. “From the moment Russia shifted to world prices for its gas, the idea of forming an alliance fell away, since each [potential member] is pursuing its own interests,” the source said.
The source said it was unclear why Ukraine and Belarus should be included on the list of potential members since they do not have gas reserves of their own, and Russia is already increasing the price it charges them.
From an economic point of view, the inclusion of Iran in the alliance is also questionable, since that would give Tehran free access to the European market, potentially damaging to Russia’s current dominance of that market.
Berik Abdygaliev, a Kazakstan-based political scientist, believes the Yazev plan reflects the ambitions of certain elite figures in Moscow who want to use the gas issue for political ends.
“Gas is becoming a political issue. Russia understands that very well, and wants to exploit its leverage as effectively as possible,” said Abdygaliev. “It wants to use the alliance to ensure all the members are in agreement, and to draw certain countries into its sphere of influence.”
One such state is Iran, which could be a key actor in the grouping. “If Iran were suddenly to suffer a blockade but continued to export gas via other members of the gas alliance, the grouping would become a political one,” said Abdygaliev.
At the same time, he noted that creating such an alliance could reduce the political risk factors affecting the gas market in Central Asia, and would thus benefit Kazakstan, whose southern regions are dependent on gas from Uzbekistan.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
