Future of US Base Looks Secure Despite Rhetoric

Although the killing of a Kyrgyz national by a United States serviceman has sparked anti-American sentiment, political observers do not believe it will have much impact on the future of the US military presence in Kyrgyzstan.



The December 6 incident, in which a truck driver was shot dead on the US air base at Bishkek airport, has added urgency to the calls for an end to the American military presence.



President Kurmanbek Bakiev promised to personally oversee an investigation, and instructed the foreign ministry to review the status of US military personnel in Kyrgyzstan to allow a prosecution of the individual concerned. Under the terms of a 2001 agreement on the base, American servicemen come under US rather than Kyrgyz jurisdiction.



The foreign ministry sent several notes to the US embassy in Bishkek, and in one of them it proposes setting up a joint committee to amend the air base agreement.



On December 15, the Kyrgyz parliament passed a motion requesting that the government review the terms of the agreement, and questioning the continued presence of the base.



This is the second time since 2001 that questions have been raised over the US military presence.



In July 2005, President Bakiev suggested that the Americans would not be staying in Kyrgyzstan indefinitely. The US Defence Department subsequently proposed a new agreement envisaging higher rental payments.



After intensive negotiations, a deal was reached in June 2006 whereby the US offered an assistance package worth 150 million dollars plus annual rent of 15 million dollars.



Although Bishkek now seems to have renewed its tough line, political commentators say it is unlikely US troops will actually be withdrawn from Kyrgyzstan.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, does not believe the latest incident is going to spark a major domestic row, or prompt a radical revision of existing arrangements with the Americans.



According to Valentin Bogatyrev, vice-president of the Vostok think-tank, the radical solution would be to close the air base, but he notes “this would not be in the interests of either country”.



Bogatyrev said that instead of protesting loudly, the Kyrgyz government should address more practical matters – seeking compensation for damages caused by such incidents, and coming up with a mechanism for dealing with them when they occur.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)