Expert Study Supports Prosecution Case: Results consistent with systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing

The prosecution introduced an innovative expert study which found that killings and refugee flow in Kosovo occurred in a distinct pattern, indicating that they had a common cause. The study, conducted by Dr. Patrick Ball under the auspices of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Bar Association's Central and East European Law Initiative, also concluded that its results were consistent with 'a systematic campaign by Yugoslav forces' to drive 'Kosovar Albanians from their homes.'

Dr. Ball was quick to point out that the study could not prove what caused the refugee flow or the killings. Statistical studies of this type cannot establish what is true, only whether data are consistent or inconsistent with various hypotheses. The research allows rejection of a hypothesis, but not proof of one. It did find, however, that neither NATO bombing nor KLA activity was correlated with the killings and that NATO bombing did not precipitate the massive flow of refugees out of Kosovo. A sharp decline in killings and population displacement during a unilateral Serb ceasefire for Orthodox Easter gave added support to the thesis that Yugoslav forces were carrying out a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing.

Dr. Ball's report was based on contemporaneous field interviews of refugees conducted by the Coalition for International Justice & American Bar Association/Central and East European Law Initiative, Human Rights Watch, Physicians for Human Rights and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, as well as ICTY exhumation reports. For migration data, Dr. Ball examined records kept by Albanian guards and the UNHCR at one of the busiest border crossings during the war, where more than half of the total refugees – over 400,000 – passed. Records of KLA activity and NATO bombing were based on Serbian governmental and nongovernmental sources.

While the component parts of the research methodology are well-accepted in the scientific community, according to Dr. Ball, their application to human rights violations in a conflict situation is unprecedented. Therefore, this type evidence has not yet been accepted in a court of law. This fact contributed to the Trial Chamber's and amici curiae's uneasiness with the report. They asked that Dr. Ball's data be made available for independent expert examination and that he be available for consultation, which he agreed to do. Ultimately, the Trial Chamber will decide what weight, if any, to give evidence that comes close to usurping the role of the fact-finder, i.e. deciding whether Mr. Milosevic was responsible for the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo or whether Mr. Milosevic's alternative theories might reasonably be true, i.e. that over 800,000 refugees left Kosovo because of NATO bombing or because of KLA clashes with Serb forces, or a combination of the two, and whether the killing of over 10,000 Kosovar Albanians (600 named in the indictment) could also be ascribed to these causes.

Milosevic's cross examination attempted to discredit Dr. Ball by reading from a speech he gave in July 2001 to the effect that the audience should applaud the extradition of Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. Dr. Ball replied that his comments were merely supporting the concept of international justice. Milosevic also suggested the data underlying Dr. Ball's research was fabricated, particularly the 690 forms recovered from the Albanian border crossing. Dr. Ball said fabrication was likely only as the remotest science fiction. Finally, Milosevic questioned the report as reductionist, alleging that the complexities of war cannot be reduced to three hypotheses. He proposed that war itself was the cause of population flight; when the war stopped, the refugees returned home. In the end, only the witnesses can answer that hypothesis and only the court can decide what is more credible.

To date, all survivor witnesses have testified that they were forced to flee their homes by the coordinated actions of Serbian forces—looting, beating, killing, destruction of villages and means of livelihood. Dr. Ball's research conclusions are consistent with their testimony.