EU Quietly Courts Uzbeks

A semi-secret visit to Tashkent by a senior European Union delegation suggests that Brussels is trying to re-engage with Uzbekistan and avoid being marginalised by other international actors in the struggle for influence in Central Asia.



The delegation, led by the EU’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel, arrived in Uzbekistan on October 24 and had a meeting with Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov. Details of what they discussed remained unknown, as the meeting received little coverage in Uzbek or foreign media.



This was not the first EU team to have visited Uzbekistan recently. In late August, Antti Turunen of the Finnish foreign ministry visited Tashkent, and a German foreign ministry delegation was in town in early October.



Germany takes over the EU presidency in the first half of 2007, and closer relations with the Central Asian states are one of the key points of its foreign policy agenda. Uzbek diplomats are expected to pay a return visit to Brussels in November.



After the Andijan violence of 2005, when government troops shot hundreds of unarmed people, the European Union imposed sanctions on Uzbekistan and banned senior officials from visiting EU countries. Since then, the EU and Uzbekistan have not maintained relations at high level.



One commentator based in Tashkent believes the increasing frequency of EU visits indicates that Brussels wants to resume the relationship with Tashkent because of geopolitical considerations. He says the EU does not want Uzbekistan to fall completely within the sphere of influence of Russia, China and Iran, which have recently drawn closer to Tashkent.



“Isolation has not produced the results that were anticipated, and has only created an increasing rapprochement of Russia, China and Iran,” he said.



Uzbekistan used to be critical of Russia’s attempt to reinforce its hold in Central Asia, but in the last year and a half or so it has become much closer to Moscow - and to China, too. It has rejoined the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation and become more active within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a grouping in which Moscow and Beijing are the major players.



According to another analyst, the EU no longer wants to coordinate its actions with the United States and – unlike Washington – it can afford to take a fresh approach to Uzbekistan. In the wake of Andijan, the US was harshly critical of President Islam Karimov, and in response the Uzbeks asked the Americans to vacate the airbase at Khanabad.



NBCentralAsia analysts agree that Uzbekistan is now at a crossroads, as Karimov is almost at the end of his official term as president. He will either retain his grip on power by seeking another term, or he will nominate a successor.



It is likely that the EU calculates that it cannot afford to miss an opportunity to have a presence in Tashkent at a time when a radical shift in political direction could be imminent.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)