Election Problems Already Looming

As Afghanistan begins preparing for national elections next June, the obstacles standing in their way seem insurmountable. There are security threats across most of the country, and it is not clear what the elections will result in, or even how many people - particularly women - will take part.

June 2004 might seem too soon to run this crucial exercise in democracy, but the signs are that the interim Afghan government and its United Nations backers want to keep to schedule, as agreed at the Bonn talks in December 2001. A temporary commission was set up on July 28 to organise the election process, and registration of an estimated 10 million voters is scheduled to begin on October 1.

Security is at the forefront of concerns about how an election can be held 10 months from now. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, UNAMA, has played a central role in driving the political process forward. Yet the UN appears to have concerns about whether a fair ballot is possible so soon. A July 25 report by Secretary General Kofi Annan said that the environment for free and fair elections "does not really exist".

The UN has been calling for the International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, that is currently policing Kabul to be extended to key cities in the provinces. NATO took over command of the international force on August 11, securing its presence in the capital for the immediate future. Current US policy, however, is to establish a number of Provincial Reconstruction Teams which include a small military contingent.

Many Afghans believe that both preparations for the election and the ballot itself will be subverted by the presence of various armed factions around the country.

Dr Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi, who leads the Afghan Millat party and is also head of the national bank, told IWPR, "As long as the shadow of weapons hangs over people, they won't dare to express their opinions freely, so the process will be fraudulent rather than truly democratic."

UNAMA public information officer Anne Thomas told IWPR that while security is a concern, "it is up to the interior ministry and Afghan police to restore peace in different parts of the country".

The director general of police in the Afghan interior ministry, Mohammad Harun Asifi, assured IWPR that his men would be up to the job of providing security for voter registration and elections, although they had received no orders to do so yet. “I can say that our police are capable of restoring peace and security in all areas, and people should not worry about this," he said.

Because the interior ministry remains dominated by former Northern Alliance forces, many Afghans fear that the police will be neither effective nor impartial.

"The police harass people in full view of [President Hamed] Karzai [in the capital],” said Kabul schoolteacher Mohammad Sediq. “How can they restore security in provinces where the governor, deputy governor and police are affiliated with a party or group?"

It is not even clear what Afghans will be voting for. A Loya Jirga, or grand assembly, will convene in October this year to approve a new constitution. Once in final shape, the document will decide what kind of elected parliament Afghanistan will have, and whether there will be a president.

The 11-member election commission has yet to get down to serious business. One of its members, who asked not to be named, told IWPR that little preparatory work had been done. "The commission doesn't have an office, so its members don't know where to go and what to do," he said.

As well as six Afghans appointed by President Karzai, the election body includes five foreign experts put forward by the UN mission. Anne Thomas, public information officer for UNAMA, said the mission would help the commission with voter registration by training up special teams to go out into the provinces.

Even defining who is a voter poses problems. Anyone over 18 who holds a national identity card or can prove they were born in Afghanistan should be eligible, but questions remain about whether people with dual citizenship will be allowed to vote, and how refugees in neighbouring countries will participate.

Voter registration will be based on the results of the current census - the first since 1979 - which should show how many men and women of voting age there are. The census has been completed in 10 out of the 32 provinces, and is due to end by October.

Officials conducting the census have run into difficulties collecting accurate figures for women, because many are hidden away in family compounds. Mohammad Ali Watanyar, director of the national statistics office, told IWPR that when census-takers go to a house and ask the names of female family members, the men often get angry.

"There have been times that our workers have been threatened, while at other times they [residents] give us false names," he said.

This early problem suggests that it will not be easy to encourage women to register and vote in the election. Many will be reluctant to be photographed, if that is required for a registration card. And voting itself will have to be segregated by gender.

The Kuchi people - Pashtun nomads - are likely to be particularly resistant to anything they see as an intrusion into their personal lives, according to Ali Shah Ramz, head of the Islamic and Social Council of Kuchis.

"I believe that no Kuchi family will be ready to have women registered or photographed, or for them to go to the polling station to cast a vote," he said. "The only way forward is to use the mullahs to preach the importance of women participating in elections."

Even if the elections can be made to work in technical terms, there are few political parties in the conventional sense. The most powerful political groups are still the former mujahedin factions which have a regional or ethnic base and are backed by armed militias. The non-militarised parties are weaker and have little room in which to grow, given the current lack of security.

Aminullah Dariz, who leads one of the latter, the Wadan Afghanistan party, told IWPR he was not optimistic that power could be transferred peacefully from warlords to civilian politicians. "People still fear armed parties,” he said. "No party member or leader should be allowed to enter [the process] with even one armed man."

"Parties involved in the [1992-96] civil war [the mujahedin factions] must not be given an opportunity to take part in elections," added Dariz.

But such hopes sound forlorn, as some of the militia-backed parties are already gearing up to run. Alhaj Yaqob Ahmadzai, secretary of the Jamiat-e-Islami, the northern faction whose members currently hold key posts in government and the security forces, says the process will not work without his party.

"No process or government will happen without the participation of jihadi groups,” he insisted. “Even the foreigners have admitted that unless we participate, nothing can be implemented."

Ahmadzai was keen to stress, however, that Jamiat supported a peaceful, purely political process, "We are opposed to any use of power or arms ... However, not all mujahedin are bad people, and this is a distinction which should be drawn.”

Some ordinary Afghans are cynical about the choices they will be given in next year’s election. "My family and I have five votes," said shopkeeper Ghulam Hassan, "but I won't cast them for anybody, because no national personality or true leader exists."

Others interviewed by IWPR were more positive. "Despite all these problems, I am hopeful about the process of elections,” said Mohammad Fahim, who works for the aviation ministry, “because even if there isn't true democracy, at least there is this sign of democracy, which makes us optimistic about the future."

Gardesh is an IWPR reporter in Kabul.