Is Dialogue Possible Ahead of Street Protests?

There is still a window of opportunity for a dialogue to head off the kind of violent confrontation between opposition and government that preceded last year’s March revolution in Kyrgyzstan, NBCentralAsia’s political observers say.



A civic forum designed to bring the two sides together has failed to result in a dialogue or consensus on the political situation, observers say. The October 12 meeting was timed to precede an open-ended demonstration planned for November 2 by the opposition Movement for Reforms, which will demand the resignation of both president and prime minister.



After the meeting was over, President Kurmanbek Bakiev proposed holding a round-table discussion with political parties and non-government groups.



The resolution adopted by opposition participants in the forum was more or less a repeat of their existing demands. The 11-point list which the opposition says must be completed before November 2 includes forming a coalition government, transforming the state broadcaster into a public-service institution, finding out who was behind a smear operation that targeted opposition leader Omurbek Tekebaev, and meeting all other demands made at previous opposition demonstrations and rallies. The opposition also wants the constitutional draft produced by a conference in July last year to be sent to parliament. Finally, it wants the authorities to abandon plans to apply for an IMF/World Bank debt reduction scheme and to privatise the energy sector, while President Bakiev must dismiss his relatives from senior government positions.



It seems a long list, but Azimbek Beknazarov, who heads the party Asaba party and is part of the Movement for Reforms, believes the government could meet all these demands. “If they are not carried out,” he told NBCentralAsia. “We will demand the immediate resignation of the president. Then a truly revolutionary government could come to power and start fulfilling all that was promised after the March revolution. It will be phase two of the revolution.”



Valentin Bogatyrev, deputy director of Vostok, a Central Asian studies centre, says the president now has an opportunity to all chances to create a dialogue with the opposition – but he warns that Bakiev must not underestimate the gravity of the situation, since the opposition is making serious preparations for anti-government protests.



“If the president initiates a dialogue, it will be possible to avoid a repetition of the March [revolution]. But if he sticks to his uncompromising stance, things could get fairly difficult, with potential for confrontation and civil disobedience,” he said.



Other analysts agree, saying now is the time for negotiations.



Tursunbek Akun, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s human rights commission, believes President Bakiev may be ready for a dialogue, but warns that should this process break down, the events of 2005 could be repeated. Fundamentally, though, Akunov argues that there is little reak disagreement between the government and opposition – both are in favour of constitutional reform, both support freedom of speech, economic growth and social development, and both are against corruption and for law and order.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)