Demonstrations Fall Short of Expectations

Turnout on the first day of the opposition demonstration in Bishkek was much lower than expected. NBCentralAsia commentators believe that this shows the opposition’s resources are limited, and that this will make it more open to negotiating with the authorities.



On the afternoon of April 11, an open-ended opposition demonstration began in Ala-Too square in central Bishkek to demand early presidential elections and constitutional reform.



Despite the expectations fuelled by opposition leader and former prime minister Felix Kulov that the rally would result in a “peaceful transfer of power”, the number of demonstrators who turned up on day one of the protest was not sufficient to pressure President Kurmanbek Bakiev to the extent Kulov predicted.



Although one opposition leader, member of parliament Melis Eshimkanov, announced during the demonstration that there were 50,000 protesters on the square, journalists and other independent observers put the figure no higher than 8,000 to 10,000, while police and government commentators said it was between 3,000 and 5,000.



But deputy Kubatbek Baibolov, a member of Movement for Reforms, said more protesters would gather over the next few days.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, said that if the opposition manages to bring out more supporters and if it formulates a clearer plan of action, this could win over the many people who are still sitting on the fence.



Ibraimov thinks the opposition may have a few tactics up its sleeve which it could employ to increase the number of protestors. And if the authorities provoke trouble, more people would come out in support of Kulov, he said.



Political scientist Alexander Knyazev said the first day of demonstrations showed that the opposition had limited resources and had failed to secure large-scale participation. If the opposition fails to rally enough supporters, it will be compelled to soften its demands and start negotiating with the authorities, he said.



Kubatbek Baibolov, an opposition member of parliament, said it was not too late to start talks right away.



“Right now, everything depends on the president. If he goes for truly radical constitutional changes, then there is room for negotiations,” he said. “But we won’t stop protesting until this kind of [radical] draft is passed by parliament.”



On April 10, President Bakiev presented parliament with a set of constitutional amendments drawn up by a working group headed by Almaz Atambaev, the former Movement for Reforms politician whom he recently appointed prime minister.



If these amendments are adopted, they will reinstate many of the constitutional provisions that Bakiev agreed to under pressure from street protests last November, but then dropped in another revision in December.



However, Baibolov and other opposition figures say the latest draft does not go far enough.



“We expected the new version to take our proposals on state governance into account,” Baibolov said.



Ibraimov said the Atambaev document does contain changes for the better. For instance, it accords parliament greater powers to form and dissolve governments, rather than leaving that right in the hands of the president alone.



Political analyst Marat Kazakbaev also says the amendments drafted by Aktambaev’s working group offer a shift towards more checks and balances in the political system. He takes the view that “the opposition should take this into account, and offer a realistic appraisal of this move made by the president”.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)