Dagestan's Quiet Leadership Change

Following the surprise resignation of Magomedali Magomedov, who has run the biggest republic in the North Caucasus for 15 years, a consensus candidate has been put in place as his successor.



Mukhu Aliev, formerly chairman of the People’s Assembly or parliament of Dagestan, was chosen by the republic’s parliament on February 20, with only one of the 102 deputies present voting against.



But while the selection process appeared to go smoothly, without the turbulence that an open competition might have caused in this ethnically diverse republic, the new leader faces major challenges in balancing the need for reform against the vested interests that form much of the political fabric.



Under new constitutional arrangements, Aliev becomes the first person to hold the title of president of Dagestan, and the old 14-member State Council, formerly the republic’s highest body, is abolished.



The manner of the transition, just three days after long-serving leader Magomedov resigned, appears to be have been agreed with the outgoing leader. Magomedov’s son, Magomed-Salam Magomedov, was unanimously elected parliamentary speaker to succeed Aliev.



The elder Magomedov had been due to serve three more months as Dagestani leader, and the transition process had not yet properly started. There were even rumours from Magomedov's own entourage that he himself would stand as a candidate for the presidency.



Until two years ago, the plan was that Dagestan, the only Russian region that did not have a directly elected leader at the time, would hold a national ballot for the post. This idea was shelved when President Vladimir Putin abolished elections for regional heads across Russia. Under the new system, Putin nominates a candidate for the job, subject to approval by the regional assembly.



Salav Aliev, chairman of the Dagestani Peoples' Congress, a public organisation, said the decision not to hold an election in Dagestan, Russia’s most ethnically diverse region, had defused tensions. “The problem of the handover of power has been taken off the agenda,” he said.



"My health makes it impossible for me to work hard," 75-year-old Magomedov told President Putin on 17 February as he handed his resignation. Magomedov had been in charge of the republic since 1991.



After consultations, Dmitriy Kozak, Putin’s presidential envoy for the North Caucasus, came up with three possible candidates. The candidates were Said Amirov, the powerful mayor of Makhachkala, Saigidhusein Magomedov, the head of the republican treasury, and parliamentary speaker Aliev. Aliev was chosen by Magomedov and his supporters, and duly proclaimed to be President Putin’s preferred candidate.



Opposition deputy Suleiman Ulladiev complained that authorities tried to exclude a group of opposition figures from the consultation meeting with Kozak at which the candidates were nominated. One opposition editor, Hajimurad Kamalov, was ejected from the government building where the meeting took place.



A government source told IWPR that after much debate, Amirov, who had the support of around 40 per cent of deputies, withdrew his candidacy when he learned that Putin was backing Mukhu Aliev.



Saigidhusein Magomedov was being backed by the so-called Northern Alliance which has formed around the mayors of the city of Khasavyurt and Kizlyar. But when it became clear that Aliev would prevail, all the deputies agreed to vote for him.



The new president is 65 and served as the last head of the republic’s Communist Party in 1990-1. He has been speaker of the local parliament since 1995. Unlike his predecessor, a Dargin, Aliev is an Avar, the republic’s largest ethnic group.



Some commentators expect business as usual under Aliev in Dagestan, which has been troubled by recent political violence and corruption.



"If Mukhu Aliev becomes president, there will be no changes in the republic," Ulladiev told IWPR. “This will mean the preservation of all the problems.”



Abdul-Hamid Aliev, director of the Dagestani Centre for Ethnic and Political Studies, said Mukhu Aliev's candidacy was the best option for the Kremlin because there would be no re-division of economic power and Moscow would not lose control of one of its most volatile regions.



He went on, "Mukhu Aliev is a predictable politician who is experienced in working with the apparatus. He keeps an equal distance from political groups that are formed on the basis of ethnic origin or kinship. This is why it’s not only the Avars, who make up 30 per cent of the population, but also other nationalities who support him."



However, Enver Kisriev, a Moscow-based political analyst, said Aliev was his own man and would have a different style of leadership.



“Mukhu Aliev is a managerial-style man and he is no expert in political games, unlike the republic's previous leader,” said Kisriev. “It should be expected that there will be more order in Dagestan, an administrative reform will be carried out, and management will improve.



“At the same time, there’s a danger that by establishing order and shutting off people’s income sources - even if these may not always be entirely legal – without providing them with legal sources of income in return, he will cause discontent and increase instability in society.”



Abdulnasyr Dibirov, director of the Makhachkala Institute of Economy and Politics, warned that huge problems remained below the surface, and the selection of the new leader was not as smooth as it seemed from the outside. "Although the fight for the post of the first president was not visible, it was tense and it took place behind the scenes,” he said.



“Systemic opposition failed to take shape during the years of Magomedali Magomedov's rule in Dagestan,” said Dibirov. “There are forces that oppose the authorities, [but] outside the system. They often act illegally, without observing the rules. If Mukhu Aliev manages to get them involved in the political process, within the framework of the system, the relationship will become more productive."



Musa Musayev is an independent journalist based in Makhachkala