Communist Unity No Threat to Ruling Party
Communist Unity No Threat to Ruling Party
The merger of Kazakstan’s two Communist parties will not change the political landscape significantly unless the new force can team up with other centre-left parties to contest the next parliamentary election in 2009.
On March 26, Serikbolsyn Abdildin of the Communist Party of Kazakstan, CPK, and Vladislav Kosarev of the Communist People’s Party of Kazakstan, CPPK, announced that the two groups were merging after a three-year split.
Kosarev broke away from the CPK in 2004 after a row over the appointment of a party secretary, and quickly set up his own party with similar political goals.
Political scientist Maksim Kaznacheev says that the split caused both parties to perform poorly in the last parliamentary election, held in 2004. Neither party won a single seat in the legislature, and the Communists virtually disappeared from the political arena as a result.
Kaznacheev says they have regrouped in preparation for the upcoming 2009 election.
“The Communist merger reduces the number of leftist political players. There is a great deal at stake - the CPPK’s split from the CPK meant that the latter failed to cross the seven per cent threshold it needed to secure a Majilis seat by means of the party list system,” he said.
NBCentralAsia experts agree that even a strengthened Communist Party will have no effect on the alignment of party forces. The president’s Nur Otan party is exceptionally strong, especially after swallowed up the Asar, Civil and Agrarian parties over the past year. Nur Otan now holds most seats in parliament and has around 900,000 members.
“The Communist merger does not change the political landscape, it just tidies it up. The contours of the political landscape have been taking shape for some time not, and this merger merely follow the trend,” NBCentralAsia analyst Petr Svoik says.
Out of the 77 deputies in Kazakstan’s lower house of parliament, only 10 are selected from party lists, but members elected in constituency elections can also represent political parties. Moreover, there is a strong chance that constitutional reforms expected next year will increase the number of parliamentarians elected from party lists.
Analysts say that if the constitution is amended to give parties more of a role in Kazak politics, the presence on the scene of a strengthened Communist Party may create a greater incentive for political parties to promote social programmes, a policy area of increasing importance.
According to Kaznacheev, the Communists might be able to give Nur Otan a run for its money in the next election if they can forge pacts with centre-left parties.
“A lot depends on how negotiations go between the Communists and the Social Democrats. If they can’t reach a compromise, these political forces will divide their electorate,” he said.
The Social Democratic Party was set up by prominent opposition leader Jarmakhan Tuyakbay at the beginning of the year, and is now one of the strongest left-wing parties.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
On March 26, Serikbolsyn Abdildin of the Communist Party of Kazakstan, CPK, and Vladislav Kosarev of the Communist People’s Party of Kazakstan, CPPK, announced that the two groups were merging after a three-year split.
Kosarev broke away from the CPK in 2004 after a row over the appointment of a party secretary, and quickly set up his own party with similar political goals.
Political scientist Maksim Kaznacheev says that the split caused both parties to perform poorly in the last parliamentary election, held in 2004. Neither party won a single seat in the legislature, and the Communists virtually disappeared from the political arena as a result.
Kaznacheev says they have regrouped in preparation for the upcoming 2009 election.
“The Communist merger reduces the number of leftist political players. There is a great deal at stake - the CPPK’s split from the CPK meant that the latter failed to cross the seven per cent threshold it needed to secure a Majilis seat by means of the party list system,” he said.
NBCentralAsia experts agree that even a strengthened Communist Party will have no effect on the alignment of party forces. The president’s Nur Otan party is exceptionally strong, especially after swallowed up the Asar, Civil and Agrarian parties over the past year. Nur Otan now holds most seats in parliament and has around 900,000 members.
“The Communist merger does not change the political landscape, it just tidies it up. The contours of the political landscape have been taking shape for some time not, and this merger merely follow the trend,” NBCentralAsia analyst Petr Svoik says.
Out of the 77 deputies in Kazakstan’s lower house of parliament, only 10 are selected from party lists, but members elected in constituency elections can also represent political parties. Moreover, there is a strong chance that constitutional reforms expected next year will increase the number of parliamentarians elected from party lists.
Analysts say that if the constitution is amended to give parties more of a role in Kazak politics, the presence on the scene of a strengthened Communist Party may create a greater incentive for political parties to promote social programmes, a policy area of increasing importance.
According to Kaznacheev, the Communists might be able to give Nur Otan a run for its money in the next election if they can forge pacts with centre-left parties.
“A lot depends on how negotiations go between the Communists and the Social Democrats. If they can’t reach a compromise, these political forces will divide their electorate,” he said.
The Social Democratic Party was set up by prominent opposition leader Jarmakhan Tuyakbay at the beginning of the year, and is now one of the strongest left-wing parties.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
