Cabinet Resignation Creates Impasse

The resignation of Kyrgyzstan’s government is likely to worsen the already poor relationship between President Kurmanbek Bakiev and the country’s parliament, NBCentralAsia political scientists say.



The cabinet headed by Prime Minister Felix Kulov stepped down on December 19, saying it was unable to work constructively or achieve compromises with parliament. President Bakiev accepted its resignation the same day, noting that the decision was in line with the constitution adopted last month.



The cabinet, including Kulov, will stay on until a new government is formed.



Valentin Bogatyrev, vice-president of the Vostok think-tank, believes this development marks marks the beginning of a new wave of political confrontation, during which relations between parliament, president and acting government will become even more tense than they are now.



“Now that the government is only temporary, the president has been left to deal with parliament alone – moreover, in confrontation with it,” said Bogatyrev. “Since the government…can no longer be held to account, parliamentarians will make the president answer for the situation in the country, social and economic indicators, and preparations for winter.”



Bogatyrev said it was possible that parliament would boycott or even seek to undermine the acting government.



The new constitution, adopted after a week of protests in November, states that if a political party wins most of the parliamentary seats allocated by proportional representation, it has a right to form a government. But no party currently has such a majority, and parliament is therefore not in a position to form a government.



NBCentralAsia analysts say that parliament should take the decision to dissolve itself so that fresh elections can be held in 2007. However, any move by President Bakiev to force parliament’s hand would be not only unconstitutional but risky.



The cabinet’s resignation could help push parliament towards seeking its own dissolution. But Bogatyrev says the legislature cannot be dissolved by another institution, and is likely to resist any pressure to do so itself.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, believes the weak development of political parties in Kyrgyzstan means that President Bakiev will still have a say in naming a government even if a parliamentary election takes place. He notes that if no party wins the required majority, the president nominates a party to form the government. “The wording is vague, so it is all down to the president’s discretion,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)