Astana Needs to Push OSCE Diplomacy

Although Kazakstan has secured European Union support for its bid to chair the OSCE in 2009, it will have to pull all the stops out to win round the United States and Britain, NBCentralAsia analysts say.



Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for External Relations, announced during an October 19 visit to Astana that Brussels will support Kazakstan’s application“with great pleasure”, saying it was time a Central Asian country chaired the organisation.



The commissioner made it clear that EU backing is contingent on Astana introducing democratic reforms next year.



The EU first signalled its intention to support the Kazak bid at the beginning of October.



NBCentralAsia analysts say countries such as Germany and France are particularly supportive of the bid, and could result in overall backing from the EU when OSCE members start voting on the issue in two months’ time.



But securing the chairmanship will ultimately depend on whether Washington and London can be brought on side.



“The EU has to agree the issue of Kazakstan’s candidacy with two players - the United States and Britain,” said Eduard Poletaev, editor of the journal Mir Yevrazii.



Commentators suggest that President Nursultan Nazarbaev may not have made the most of an opportunity to prod American towards supporting Kazakstan’s candidacy during his September visit to the US. They say that in the wake of the summit, Washington’s stance on the issue remains unclear.



NBCentralAsia analysts say on current form, the Washington may make general noises of support but ultimately reject Astana’s bid because the political establishment regards Kazakstan as part of an unstable region.



The analysts note, however, that the country’s OSCE prospects could be substantially improved by intensive diplomatic lobbying ahead of the OSCE vote in December.



“A lot of things come into play here – reaching an understanding with Kazakstan’s political elite, plus the interest in the country’s energy resources,” said Poletaev. “Everything could change in the next two months, and Kazakstan could still win the OSCE chairmanship.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)