Ashgabat Oblivious to Rap on Knuckles

The Turkmen government is unlikely to change its ways even if the European Union denies it a long-awaited trade deal, NBCentralAsia commentators say.



The European Parliament’s international trade committee last week decided against ratification of an Interim Trade Agreement with Turkmenistan. In a resolution, the committee said the agreement would only be signed if Turkmenistan made substantial progress on human rights, including releasing political prisoners, allowing non-government organisations to operate freely, and granting foreign human rights groups permission to monitor the situation inside the country.



The committee’s decision means that the trade deal will not go forward for ratification by the European Parliament, and Turkmenistan will thus be denied a deal which would have offered it significantly better terms of trade than it currently has under a Soviet-era arrangement.



Turkmenistan is heavily dependent on trade with the European Union – last year it imported more from EU states than from anywhere else except Ukraine and Iran – and is reliant on the oil and gas sector technology and expertise it can buy in from Europe.



Despite the value of a preferential trade deal, NBCentralAsia commentators believe President Saparmurat Niazov will reject the conditions set by the EU, even if that means his regime comes under greater pressure from Europe.



According to Turkmenistan-watcher Muhammad Tahir, accepting the deal would be tantamount to allowing an opposition to emerge inside the country, which could threaten Niazov’s position of power. Tahir does not believe the decision will have come as much of a surprise. “Niazov is aware that external political pressure is inevitable. So he keeps the door open to many trading partners,” he said.



Other commentators on Turkmenistan whom NBCentralAsia interviewed say that withholding the trade deal sends out the right message and serves as a kind of punishment for the regime. But they question whether the country will really lose out as a result. Even if European businesses were to cut back their activities in Turkmenistan, which is in any case unlikely to happen with commercial firms, Ashgabat still has other options - Turkey, the United States, Russia, Ukraine and Iran are already active, and Indian and Chinese interest is growing.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)