Armenia: Regime Parties Dominate Poll

Two contrasting parties linked to the governing elite are dominating Armenia’s parliamentary elections, with much of the drama being provided by the awkward rivalry between them. The polls are widely being seen as a dress rehearsal for next year’s presidential election.



“On May 12 the main fight will be between political forces within the system of power,” said Samvel Nikoyan, a parliamentary deputy from the Republican Party - one of the two parties dominating the pre-election period. He dismissed the chances of the opposition wining a majority in parliament.



The Republican Party currently comprises the main group in parliament and is led by Serzh Sarkisian, who recently became prime minister after many years serving as defence minister. Sarkisian is also the favourite to succeed Robert Kocharian when his second and final term as president ends next year.



The party’s main rival is Prosperous Armenia, an electoral movement founded by the man frequently said to be the country’s richest businessman, former champion wrestler Gagik Tsarukian. Prosperous Armenia is closely linked to President Kocharian.



The leaders of the two parties, which get the lion’s share of television news coverage, do not criticise one another, but observers see tensions underneath.



Of the 131 seats in parliament, 41 will be elected from constituencies and 90 proportionally from lists of parties, which collect more than five per cent of the overall vote. The battle in the 41 constituencies that cover the country will not only between party candidates but candidates nominated by groups of voters.



The two parties’ programmes are similar. Tsarukian said that the Republican Party had achieved high levels of economic growth, which his party wanted to see continue.



Vardan Bostanjian, one of the leaders of Prosperous Armenia, said that he “feels love towards the Republican Party of Armenia which he regards not as an enemy but as a rival”.



The parliamentary leader of the Republican Party Galust Sahakian has said that he thinks it possible that the two parties will collaborate in the next parliament.



The rivalry between the two parties is mostly hidden from view and the subject of rumour and speculation. Two of the Yerevan offices of Prosperous Armenia were blown up in explosions in April. According to one press report, Republican Party activists were behind the blasts while another report blamed Prosperous Armenia itself.



Following the explosions, Prosperous Armenia issued a call for the election campaign to remain a civilised struggle, while the Republican Party made a statement saying that certain forces were trying to destabilise the situation. Many observers saw these statements by the two favourites in the parliamentary poll as being aimed at one another - although no names were named.



Political commentator Vahan Vardanian said that whatever deal had been struck at the top, there was no agreement on the division of roles amongst second-tier figures after the elections.



A leading opposition politician, Suren Sureniants, said neither of the two should be called proper parties.



“There is the quasi Republican Party which serves the interests of the clan of Serzh Sarkisian and the quasi Prosperous Armenia party which serves the interest of the oligarchs who have gathered round Robert Kocharian,” said Sureniants.



The friendship and political alliance of Kocharian and Sarkisian, who both come from Nagorny Karabakh, dates back more than 20 years. Some are predicting that after he steps down, Kocharian will aim to become prime minister if Sarkisian becomes president.



Sarkisian has said he will make his intentions clear on May 13, the day after the parliamentary poll. He has already begun making high-profile trips around the country and is leading the Republican Party’s election campaign virtually single-handed, holding meetings with voters and appearing on television. He not only appears in the party’s electoral advertisements, but is seen constantly in television news reports.



Edvard Antinian, deputy chairman of the Liberal Progressive Party of Armenia, said that the appointment of Sarkisian to the post of prime minister to succeed Andranik Margarian, who died in March unexpectedly of a heart attack, had damaged Sarkisian’s chances of becoming president.



“It would have been better for Sarkisian if he had continued to be the ‘grey cardinal’ who ran the government from behind the scenes,” Antinian told IWPR, arguing that Sarkisian’s presidential ambitions had been revealed too early.



Antinian said that Sarkisian’s elevation to head the Republican Party had strengthened the position of the military and security faction in the party, making it more aggressive towards Prosperous Armenia.



“Until recently the parties coordinated their actions with one another, but that’s no longer happening,” said Antinian.



The governing coalition formed after the last parliamentary elections in 2003 between the Republican Party, the veteran nationalist party Dashnaktsutiun and the Orinats Yerkir party has broken up. Dashnaktsutiun is now critical of the government, while Orinats Yerkir and its leader, former parliamentary speaker Artur Baghdasarian, has gone into open opposition.



One of the leaders of Dashnaktsutiun, Hrant Margarian, announced that they would not be supporting Sarkisian in the presidential election but would nominate their own candidate.



Baghdasarian also has presidential ambitions and has set himself up as a leading critic of the governing elite – which has recently landed him in trouble.



The Russian-language newspaper Golos Armenii recently published the transcript of a taped conversation that allegedly took place in a Yerevan restaurant between Baghdasarian and British diplomat Richard Hyde.



In the conversation, Baghdasarian is heard to argue that international observers must come out with a forceful denunciation of the outcome of the parliamentary elections.



President Kocharian called Baghdasarian a traitor. “It’s hard to imagine that a former speaker could fall so low,” he said.“Someone who has betrayed once is capable of doing it again.”



Baghdasarian said the publication was a “provocation” designed to discredit him ahead of the presidential elections, in which he plans to stand.



As well as the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia and the two former members of the governing coalition, observers see two other opposition parties as having a good chance of winning seats in parliament – National Unity of former Yerevan mayor Artashes Geghamian and Heritage of former foreign minister Raffi Hovanissian.



Rita Karapetian is a correspondent with Noyan Tapan news agency in Yerevan.