Weaponising the Transnistrian Region’s Winter

Welcome to IWPR’s Frontline Update, your go-to source to hear from journalists and local voices at the front lines of conflict.

 THE BIG PICTURE  

Residents of Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region are suffering through yet another freezing winter as precarious energy supplies disrupt basic services and deepen pressure on the local economy.

The territory, sandwiched between the Nistru River and the Ukrainian border, relies on free gas supplied by Russia, giving Moscow huge influence over its residents – and powerful leverage over Chisinau. 

 VOICES FROM THE FRONTLINE 

“Moscow retains the ability either to artificially sustain the Transnistrian region or to destabilise it when deemed necessary, with direct consequences for the entire country,” said Irina Tabaranu, the founder of Zona de Securitate, an IWPR partner and the first Moldovan outlet covering the Transnistrian region and surrounding security zone.

She told IWPR this week that international sanctions were not the only factor in Moscow’s ability to provide an uninterrupted flow of gas to the region.

“Russia could halt these payments without a clear economic reason, as part of an effort to destabilise the situation in the Republic of Moldova,” Tabaranu continued. “This remains a lever at the Kremlin’s disposal and is part of Russia’s broader hybrid warfare toolkit, an option that cannot be ruled out.”

 WHY IT MATTERS 

Moldova has repeatedly defied intense malign influence operations by Russia to pursue a pro-European political trajectory, mostly recently in last year’s pivotal parliamentary elections. But Russian control of the Transnistrian region represents an ongoing obstacle to its ambitions to join the EU.

“The situation in the Transnistrian region is both a reintegration challenge and an essential condition for the country’s European path,” said Cristina Lesnic, director of the Institute for Democracy and Development, a Moldova NGO and IWPR partner. “Managing the energy crisis and reducing structural vulnerabilities are integral parts of strengthening security, internal cohesion, and alignment with EU standards.”

“Chişinău will need to find a solution for the reintegration of the region before accession, otherwise serious security-related questions will arise,” Tabaranu agreed. “These concern the EU’s own security when admitting a state with unresolved territorial integrity issues, on whose territory Russian troops are stationed and where a so-called peacekeeping mission involving Russia is present.”

 THE BOTTOM LINE 

Civil society and independent voices remain key to combating Russia intense efforts to pursue its hybrid approach to export instability.

In the Transnistrian region, media has long reflected fabricated narratives depicting Moldova as an aggressor that wants to destroy the territory’s development. A manufactured energy crisis allows such propaganda to take hold, making reliable, independent information more valuable than ever.

IWPR has been instrumental in establishing local infrastructure for combatting Russian disinformation – including the onslaught that unsuccessfully tried to thwart Moldova’s pro-EU direction in last year’s election - and continues working with local partners to ensure Moldovans are free to decide their own future.