Moscow to Strengthen Position as Prime Market for Turkmen Gas

The death of Turkmenistan’s president has sparked talk that the uncertainties surrounding the political transition could threaten the energy security of other countries. However, Turkmenistan-watchers suggest the new authorities will continue to identify Moscow as their principal foreign-policy partner, as the Russians are likely to support any leadership that shows itself capable of ensuring stability.



As the mourning period for the late president Saparmurat Niazov, who died on December 21, comes to a close, six presidential candidates are in the running to succeed him. Although acting president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is tipped to win the February 11 election, there have been expressions of concern about political instability from both future and existing energy customers Russia, Ukraine, Europe and China as well as from potential investors in the country’s gas industry.



Despite an agreement valid till 2028 with Turkmenistan’s main partner – Russia’s Gazprom – under which virtually all natural gas exports were to go to Russia for re-sale to European countries, President Niazov was also in negotiation with other potential consumers prior to his death.



In April 2006, Beijing signed a deal to lay a pipeline from Turkmenistan via Kazakstan, carrying 30 billion cubic metres of gas to China every year. Shortly before his death, Niazov also talking about a possible westward pipeline across the Caspian Sea and another going south and east via Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. And when German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was in Ashgabat in November 2006, Niazov proposed that the Germans participate in building a new pipeline to supply gas from the recently-discovered South Yolotan field to Europe.



Three days after Niazov’s death, Berdymuhammedov announced on national television that “foreign oil and gas customers have no reason to worry about the agreements that have been signed, as Turkmenistan is going to maintain its reputation as a reliable partner, and there will be no developments that undermine energy exports”.



NBCentralAsia expert Mars Sariev view this and similar statements as an attempt by the interim administration to win the political backing of its gas partners as it tries to consolidate its position.



It is crucial that the Turkmen authorities get the Kremlin on side if they are to legitimise their power, Sariev said, adding that for its part, Russia will “lobby its own interests and give its full support to the [Turkmen] regime”.



Having a close relationship with the Kremlin makes a good deal of sense as the Russians – unlike the European Union or the United States – do not concern themselves with sensitive domestic policy issues such as human rights or calls for radical democratic change.



Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the Mir Yevrazii journal in Kazakstan, is in no doubt that Ashgabat is going to be part of Moscow’s sphere of influence. Gazprom – which counts as a political as well as commercial institution - will ensure its interests are protected. Meanwhile, he said, the Europeans remain poorly informed about Turkmenistan, and will give the Russians carte blanche sort things out there.



Other commentators interviewed by NBCentralAsia said that if there was any uncertainty, it surrounded plans to build a Transcaspian gas pipeline and other export routes that would bypass Russian territory.



Konstantin Syroyezhkin, a Kazakstan-based energy expert, said European initiatives such as the German offer to help develop new fields and build pipelines are likely to prove impracticable,



“Even if the West is interested in such projects, the issue of funding remains unresolved – all the more so since the country now faces a fairly long period of instability,” Syroyezhkin told NBCentralAsia.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)