China Would Dominate a Regional Common Market

Central Asia is not ready to join a common market within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, as locally-manufactured goods would not be able to compete with Chinese products, say NBCentralAsia analysts.



Speaking at a September 12 conference in Almaty on China and Central Asia, China expert Konstantin Syroyezhkin warned that a free trade zone in Central Asia under the aegis of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, could bring a massive influx of Chinese goods, the Regnum news agency reported. Syroyezhkin is an analyst with the China Studies Centre at Kazakstan’s Institute of World Economics and Politics.



The idea for an SCO free-trade zone was first put forward by Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao in 2003. The then Uzbek prime minister Utkir Sultanov later backed the plan, saying it would expand trade between the grouping’s members - Russia, China, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.



Most of the analysts interviewed by NBCentralAsia shared Syroyezhkin’s view that Central Asia would be swamped by cheap Chinese goods, and local producers would be undermined.



Kazakstan-based political scientist Eduard Poletaev said that if a free trade zone was set up in Central Asia, countries in the region would be unable to hold their own.



“The Central Asian countries are too weak to deal with China as equals,” he said.



Shokirjon Hakimov, a political scientist from Tajikistan, believes that Central Asian leaders would welcome increased availability of cheap Chinese goods as a way of keeping their low-income populations happy.



But he added that regional governments would need to inspect imported goods and turn away those of poor quality.



Tajik economist Hojimahmad Umarov believes a common market would be a good thing as each of the participating countries could fill a particular niche, and it also would encourage imports of Chinese high-technology items.



The head of economics at the Kazakstan Institute for Strategic Studies, Gulnur Rahmatullina, agrees that a common market would benefit consumers, but she says it is too early for this to happen because of China’s current manufacturing dominance - Central Asia does not want to be confined to producing raw materials for ever.



(NBCentralAsia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region)